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First of all, nobody will be ditching their Droid because they are on contract. It would take one hell of an iPhone to make anyone switch for that reason alone.
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I think you underestimate the will of people when a new device hits. And generally, anything with an "i" to start the name generates ridiculous fanboy craze.
There are definitely people out there that will drop a phone in a heartbeat for the latest hot phone, contract or not.