I think Window 8 (and subsquent revisions) has the best shot at it. It is a long game though and way to early to tell if Windows Phone will gain any traction much gain dominance. My prediction is that within 5 years Android and Windows will be the dominant mobile platforms with Apple in 3rd place. I don't know that Windows will ever topple Android though.
As for the other up and comers, unless they come up with something truly innovative to make people say I must have that - I think they will be going the way of WebOS (which actually was kinda unique and innovative).
The truth is I think the mobile market has matured rapidly and I think we are reaching a point where most upgrades are going to be evolutionary, rather than revolutionary.