Yep we will certainly be 1 firmware behind HTC everytime.
I spoke with a high level executive from Samsung who was extremely knowledgeable about Android development. When I mentioned Android 2.0 shipping this year, he looked at me kind of weird and snickered. He told me not to expect Android 2.0 until Q2 2010.
One of the reasons why having updated software matters unless Samsung integrates the patches into cupcake.