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AppleInsider | Android's weak sales drive Verizon toward Apple's iPhone

I think its made up

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pf4awg

It may be the case for that network in paricular but for the rest of the world android is building fast. I remember reading the other day there are 300,000 new android phones being activated every day so its hardly dying

mrsbelpit

lol don't worry about android...isn't verizon the one that Binged all their androids?

adi19956

Android's growth is slowing down I heard, can't remember where though

bbrosen

No not dying, but the Android name is being diluted by the handset makers and the carriers. Everyone wants to be "special" and have their own UI or preloaded apps to set them apart or make the user feel they have added value, but I believe it will hurt android in the long run. Down the road most people will not know where android begins or ends for the modded UI and app stores that crop up. At the very least it will be confusing. Say samsung puts up a crappy app store with a crappy UI many will not even know it's not the real android market, and if its a bad implementation of the store and ui then they will carry a bad taste in their mouth from then on about Android. Also,To the gen public, fragmentation does matter, the hardware and software differences do count to them. The average users i talk too think htc sense is an app that can be downloaded. These things will hurt android in the long run, but this is one of the problems with open source, no one owns or manages the "brand". Just my thoughts on the subject...

Bnice

I notice with all the talk of verizon getting the iphone, verizon all of a sudden having issues with Android.

LoyalServant

These guys are 'hoping' for it.
Happens every year.... the 'hope' for a Verizon iPhone... the 'death' of Android etc etc.

The data on these charts is ambiguous... the data to be compared isn't even for the same timeframe.

2FR35H

Thats really laughable. Android isn't dying, things are just getting started. Maybe on Verizon its dying because almost all their high end androids are named droid and have nearly the same specs. Motoblur might be doing damage as well. The droids are mostly too big imo. Verizon doesn't have too much different androids. Let get the next iPhone. Meego and android are going to be the best devices especially as long as AT&T keeps the iPhone. Even if iPhone goes all carrier its done with unless Apple does something amazing other than using old technology.

Android is far from done. Although things will eventually stabilize probably after year after MeeGo takes off in America.

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Guamguy

That article is misleading. You can always mislead with statistics and graphs. The article failed to discount that the total number of smartphone contracts on Verizon has sharply risen, month after month, as they convert featurephone owners to smartphone owners with data contracts. That means more lucrative data contracts are increasing with Verizon.

The article fails to account that that last quarter was the first quarter shortly after the iPhone 4 introduction, and thus, there is a strong surge in upgrades after three generations of iPhone users. Since you're upgrading a smartphone user, you're not increasing the number of smartphone plans. The iPhone itself has a cyclical pattern, strong in the first two quarters, then flattening out in the last two before a new introduction. This is in contrast with Android, whose continuous surge of new models, makes sales non cyclical.

The data is also a fallacy because it failed to consider that Android is on all four carriers, including AT&T. To measure all of iPhone new sales vs. only one of the four carriers (seven now since MetroPCS, US Cellular and Cellular South are now carrying Androids), I think that is quite misleading. Android is not exclusive to Verizon, nor does Verizon account for the majority of Android sales. 3 of the best selling Android phones in the US are not with Verizon---the Vibrant, the Captivate and the EVO.

In fact, its very likely that if you merge all its models into a single platform---the Samsung Galaxy S was the top Android phone seller in the US for last summer. The problem is Verizon's Fascinate was the last of the major four Galaxy S to be introduced, and the one with the most undesirables (2gb of internal SD only vs. 16 on others, Bing Search and Maps instead of Google on the others). This makes Verizon the least to have enjoyed from the Galaxy S surge.

Facts are Sprint, T-Mobile and Verizon are rapidly converting users with dumbphone plans to more expensive, smartphone contracts. That's like adding $30 plus per head.

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biohazard989

This article screams false on so many levels... they totally negate recent data where android is absolutely exploding... not to mention apple insider is their name... sounds a bit to much like Steve Jobs ranting about android... all you have to do now a days is look around you... it seems to me android phones are outnumbering iphones by a long shot...

LoyalServant

I thought about this for awhile.. and when I go look at the report it has this glaring admission at the top:

Okay.. so what if I call Verizon and order my phones, which I actually did.
What about Verizon corporate stores?

Let's face the music here... if I go into an independent store I will pay more for the device.
If I order it online I will pay less.
If I call them and order it I will pay less.
If I go to a Verizon corporate store I might pay less.. I think (?)
So, assuming that some people are going to get it cheaper these people are not counted.
The Verizon corporate owned stores are not counted.
The Verizon call center sales are not counted..... see where this is going?

This is probably half their sales numbers, and they are not counted??

The report even has a glaring disclaimer at the top that 'the conclusions below should be taken with a grain of salt.'

This should be taken with more than a 'grain of salt'.
So.... my conclusion...
1. The "report" uses data from 2 timeframes
2. The "report" uses incomplete data
3. The "report" is the obvious wishful thinking of yet another iFan trying to justify his purchase.

takeshi

No. Not unless maybe you think the sky is falling.

You're certainly entitled to your opinion but Android was designed with this intent in mind. The "dilution = fail" theory seems to assume that the monolithic OS approach is the only way to do things and I'm not convinced that's the case. Android's approach is a bit of a double-edged sword but it seems to early to tell whether it will hurt in the long run or not. Android has certainly grown very quickly despite it if it is a drawback.

lunatic59

That's all I had to read to know the "article" was a load of fertilizer. Apple and Verizon have been in discussions since before the launch of the iPhone. They just have never been able to come to an agreement over control. It may happen, it may not. Android has nothing to do with it.

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lunatic59

Of course it is, but it's a statistical spin. When you go from 100,000 phones to 1,000,000 you show a 900% increase, when you go from 1 million to 3 million growth drops to 200%, when you go from 3 million to 6 million growth has slowed to 100%. Only when growth hits negative digits has the total number of users stopped increasing.

lunatic59

On the contrary. It provided the manufacturers the opportunity to set themselves apart from each other and let the consumer endorse or reject their products.

Say Samsung puts up an excellent app store with an innovative UI over Android ... it works both ways. The assumption that the carriers and manufacturers are only able to harm the platform is mistaken. As far as the general phone-buying public is concerned, most don't know or care that the phone is based on Android. If they don't like Samsung, they might try HTC, LG or Motorola .... or Apple or WP7 for that matter. To your average consumer they are all different phones, even though a good number are based on Android.

Google owns and manages the brand. They just don't impose Draconian mandates about its use and application.

lordofthereef

Say what you will. IMO, handset makers do more to bloat and slow down the software, all while not allowing you to delete the trash you don't want. I suppose they COULD help android look better. The point is they currently don't.

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snapper.fishes

Many people like sense, and I love Samsung's puzzle lock screen. It's all a matter of personal taste. What you are saying only applies to yourself. And there are usually ways to remove apps that you don't like. That's why Android is an open platform. If you don't take advantage of that, why did you pick Android in the first place?

JaseZilla

I agree with this 100 percent. Before i got my captivate my friend had some htc phone and it was a droid based phone. I didnt like it very much. But when i saw the captivate i fell in love with it. But before i really got it, i had to educate myself a little more on what it was all about. Most people will not do that much research. First impressions are often the last if it leaves a bitter taste in their mouth. But when i got to see different versions, it intrugued me a little more to learn. Glad i did.

JaseZilla

You actually wasted time to join the forum to just post that? Seriously? And im curious... With your "logic" im guessing you assume verizon controls the world market of all phone service? I say to each his own. Shit i own mac, pc, and droid. To say the droid is dead cause the iphone may eventually come to verizon or what not is silly. Just sayin. Jus my opinion.

Edit: unless u r talking about just on verizon, then i guess its a 50/50. But then id have to agree.

Last edited by JaseZilla; December 16th, 2010 at 01:56 AM.

Stuntman

Android is doing really well in many places where iPhone and WP7 are available. They are available in all 3 major carriers here in Canada and Android is doing really well.

Why do you say everything is better on the other platforms? What is it about them that make them better?

lunatic59

When you were unimpressed with the HTC phone was your initial reaction "Gee, Android isn't all that"? or did you think "HTC phones are kinda lame." From your average Joe and Jane consumer point of view, SenseUI, Motoblur and Touchwiz are as different as WP7 and iOS, even though the initial three are all overlays to the Android OS. And, I'd venture that anyone who owns one of those phones would be initially confused with vanilla Android.

dan330

i agree with all your points..

but just looking at Verizon to do this analysis... was just plain lieing to the public! This is 100% fan boy bias BS!

comparing 100% of all iphone sales (only on ATT) to Verizons small portion of the FULL market numbers is just plain stupid!

Just looking at the Graphs... you think android is in trouble. this is using a small part of the big picture.... to confuse the public. NO independent thinking individual will swallow this. And I think the person that wrote this crap know this too, but he has job to do and bill to pay; and he does work for appleInside!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LoyalServant

Actually their goal is to attempt to spread press to keep the iFan hopes up that Verizon will get an iPhone.
They are also shooting for media attention in the hopes that Verizon will actually believe this spin and force their hand.
That's why the article was really about Verizon and how this moron has an opinion that Android is killing Verizon and they need the iPhone to keep them alive.

But, of course in order to support this hypothetical situation they need to skew the numbers somehow, so why not exclude Verizon store and call center sales figures?

If anyone is desperate it's probably Steve Jobs.
His market share is sliding and he won't be able to prop his sales up much longer unless he find a way to sell more phones.

Just look at this new iPad... it will have a USB port and a camera!
I almost crapped myself in hysterical laughter the first time I read that.
A whole new device a year later - only new feature is USB and a camera.
It's new.. it's innovative.. it's magical... it will change the world!
It's the IPad2! How it should have been to start with.. but they will get their 5 or 6 million iFans lined up to buy one....

I wish I had a company that had such a devout following that I could blindly rip off twice a year.

lordofthereef

Without rooting, no, there generally is no way to remove the bloatware they put on it. This is very much a CARRIER issue, any many people aside from just myself have complained about it. Certainly some options are nice, but having the services that the carrier provides shoved down your throat in the hopes that you try one out so they can make an extra few bucks is over the top. My point is, if you know what you are doing there are ways around things. They don't make it too convenient for the average joe though.

LoyalServant

Not even CLOSE to true.
Verizon is one carrier in one country.
I guess by that logic we should throw out all other carriers from all other countries too?

bbrosen

look, i love my samsung galaxy s showcase, I really do, hated my first phone the hero. It was a bad phone from the get go, but anyway, the gen public does not pore over these forums, we are not really the masses, the gen public, we are the geeks, we root, modify play tweak push the limits, I use vpn's port forwarding etc etc and i even have hacked my router at home and put ddwrt software on it...where the ave joe does not...I talk to a lot of the public...people do not know how to set up their own email for the most part let alone root a phone. Even for a geek like me playing with android just to get a phone to work like a damn phone was trying, the hero pushed my buttons for sure as well as android os along with my carrier and htc.

Lots of people were put off by the hero and have sworn off android after the phone and 2.1 screwed up update from our carrier, even when the desire and galaxy s came out people went back to their blackberry or went to get the iphone. we cannot be all that of an isolated case. People say android? naw not for me, it sucks, slow buggy hard to understand...thats the public for ya.


Now as for me, I was thrown into android, it's ok to tinker with it, but now that the phones have gotten better, rooting is not as much as a big deal for me as i have no lag, no gps problems or space issues. I use android because my job pays my phone bill, i just pick the phone and buy it myself and it;s android or balckberry with my carrier . ...i still covet my wifes iphone 4 tho, but i can live with android now...

To me it's crazy and confusing to have all these carriers and handset makers skin and add bloat as well as other markets, people will not know android from adam, maybe it;s not supposed to matter.


But anyway, I have come to embrace the beast so to speak...

lunatic59

The problem with that statement is that the numbers don't bear that out. Android continues to show market growth while other platforms are slowing down. If there was even a moderate exodus from Android due to poor user experience, the growth statistics would be much flatter. I am sure there are users who had bad experiences, especially those who bought certain handsets that were slow laggy and under-spec'ed. And I am also certain that some of them opted for an alternate platform for their subsequent phones. But a small percentage of dissatisfied customers does not seem to be reversing the momentum Android has found in the last year.

JaseZilla

Actually, it was none of those. It was more for me that i didnt like how it was laid out, and the processor was too slow for the phone making it horribly slow. I didnt find it enjoyable to navigate or use the phone at all.

adi19956

most Android phones aren't like that though, especially with the newer generation, they've got their problems with internal memory sorted out

EarlyMon

lunatic59 is 100% correct on raw growth - but as for relative growth of market share, the numbers say quite a different story:

ComScore: Android keeps chugging, BlackBerry falters, world awaits Windows Phone 7's numbers -- Engadget

Android's growth rate is 8 times higher that iPhone, while Blackberry loses market share - and all sales figures for WP7 are so far quite lackluster.

It takes a little while to become Number One in market share - just give it a little time.

Last number I saw was that Google was activating 200,000 Android phones per DAY.

I not sure how one assesses apps in this sort of climate.

Android Market surpasses 100,000 apps: can't stop, won't stop growing -- Engadget

iPhone - 300k apps, Android 100k apps.

Aside from games - and Android's growth in that area is just taking off - it seems like either store tends to duplicate a MUCH smaller number of apps and that's about it.

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adi19956

Android Phone Growth Slowing or Just in a Fall Lull? - ThinkMobile
I don't actually know too much about it
that says that it's the same as it was in August. That's 4 months the same.
Seeing as from July 2009 to July 2010 the increase in sales was 886% BBC News - Google Android phone shipments increase by 886% (they roughly increased their sales 10 fold), I would say the growth is slowing

EarlyMon

That actually substantiates what lunatic59 was saying.

On 6/24/2010, activations were announced at 160k/day - so in about 6 weeks, that increased to 200k/day, if the first source you give is trustworthy.

That's not constant growth - that's a curve upward in growth. If that growth were 40k/6-weeks, then in a year, that would 500k/day. If that growth were based on percentage, then that would be nearly 700k/day after a year.

A year of that would put you between around 150 and 200 million phones a year - just Android. Another year of that would be more specatular - and another year or so after that, you're defying the laws of gravity or something ( ) because in another year, you'd be activating about 5 million Androids /day. (*)

So - all growth has to slow at some point.

If we're steady at 200k/day - then that's a 45 degree line of growth on a chart - pretty good.

And - in this market, that's a bigger growth-slope up than the others.

(*) All math approximate, in my head, and subject to error - but geometric growth is like that, so maybe I'm right or maybe it'd take another year... either way, you know...

adi19956

surely we'd expect a vast increase in sales coming up to December? or have they not been counted yet? maybe you'll tell me that's irrelevant... I see your point with growth slowing down.
Let's hope it doesn't ever slow down though eh? I'd love to see really good game developers developing for Android. I hope they see these figures as an opportunity

EarlyMon

I agree with you on all points.

And, fwiw, I tend to not dismiss opinions as irrelevant.

I just do some math, but I'm no economist and I don't work in the cell phone industry - I have no idea when they'll report December or how it will compare to expectations.

I know that there are sites where that info exists - but so far as I know, you have to be in the industry, and it costs real money to gain a login account.

Most everything we all toss around together comes from people who have claimed to read those reports - or from press briefings.

That's why we have to be careful.

And one rag that gets it wrong every time is AppleInsider, in the OP.

Those guys are lower in reporting standards than the National Enquirer - and about as grounded in reality - seriously. The way they misquote...

But I digress - in any case - it's by us sharing info that we all socialize what we learn on this, and I'm way ok with that.

lunatic59

I don't think you are understanding the statistics. Every Android phone sold adds to the installed base of all Android phones, so in order to show growth at a constant rate, you'd have to increase the daily number of phones sold exponentially. Since that is not possible, what you will see in any popular selling device is diminishing growth percentages over time, even though, from a sales perspective, you are selling more phones today than you did last month.

EarlyMon

???

If tomorrow, 200k new androids are activated, then the android market share just grew by 200k. At the end of one month of that, the android market will have grown by 6 million units.

If these were consumables like potato chips, that would just mean constant consumption.

But for durable goods, constant sales means market growth.

Would we expect more holiday sales? I guess so...

adi19956

@EarlyMonI just hate saying things and people telling me it's irrelevant.
I was going to do the maths of it but I couldn't be bothered and couldn't think of a way to crunch the numbers (it's extremely late at night in the UK, tired)
And I don't know what the National Enquirer is... assuming it's a news channel or a newspaper? I'm a foreigner here :O

@lunatic59 if I can quote myself "I don't actually know too much about it"
I'm doing economics at school and we've just covered supply and demand so maybe I'll get back to you on that in a year's time when I know more about it :P

adi19956

constant sales means growth, but it doesn't mean growth in sales numbers which was what I meant

EarlyMon

Ah. Makes sense.

And I like to think of growth strictly in terms of ultimate market share, because it seems to level out external effects. If everyone's down, or everyone's up, then the economy's taken into account by market share growth numbers - it's a normalization, in other words.

It tends to indicate an answer to the question: how much growth is enough?

In our case, we're better than the others in that regard.

EarlyMon

Second time you mentioned that - did I do that? I don't recall and certainly didn't intend to.

Yeah, sorry - it's a REALLY terrible rag.

If you're studying supply and demand, good on ya - in that case, I think you've got your arms around it already and now it's just a matter of perspective and communicating.

adi19956

I'd say Android is better than others in every regard that's why I chose it.
But yeah, growth is best shown on two pie charts with each company labelled and a percentage of market share shown.
rather like this one... File:Smartphone share current.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia although it being Wikipedia I can't exactly trust it, it was just the first link on Google :P

adi19956

haha no you didn't I was just justifying me saying it
you having talked about durable and non-durable goods, done that too

lunatic59

FWIW Garnter's statiscs show in the second quarter of 2009, Android accounted for only 1.7% of the global market and by the third quarter was 3.5%.

Gartner Says Worldwide Mobile Device Sales Grew 13.8 Percent in Second Quarter of 2010, But Competition Drove Prices Down

In the second quarter of 2010, Android phones had 17.2% of the global smartphone market and by the third quarter had displaced RIM for the number 2 position at 25.5%

Press Release: Gartner Reports Mobile Phone Sales Up 35 Percent 3Q 2010 | Mobile Marketing Blog

That would imply that overall handset sales continues to grow faster than the competition. There will be seasonal trends but that should effect all phones, not just Android.

Guamguy

According to Androlib.com, who is tracking Android Market submissions, the total number of submissions are now heading to the 200k mark. Go to the website and see the curve.

Last November there was over 24k submissions alone.

@arubin has tweeted the number of Android activations is over 300k.

Granted, personally I expect US sales growth to slow down, but Android growth is exploding in both in the CJK (China, Japan, Korea) and the BRICI (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia) not to mention other Asian countries like the Philippines, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia.

At least 50% of new smartphones sold in China are now Android. Android adoption goes deeper in China, since sub $200 Android tablets are eaten up like hot cakes, and Google doesn't register an Android without the Market as an activation.

Korea is understandable, being the backyard of Samsung, LG and Pantech. You can see this explosion by the rush of Korean branded Androids like Galaxy S and Optimus One. The Korean explosion is also marked by the growing number of Korean made titles for the Android Market, like KakaoTalk.

Japan is a surprise, yet not a surprise. The openness of Android that allows for custom regionalization in places like China, where it has boomed, is also a major factor with its sudden success in Japan. The Japanese could use Android and merge them with their unique mobile technologies like digital TV and mobile payments. These create Androids that are totally unique and suitable for the Japanese environment.

The last reported top sellers in japan, for the first time, the top five are smartphones. 1.) Sharp AU ISO3. 2.) Sharp Docomo Lynx 3D. 3.) iPhone 4 32gb. 4.) Samsung Galaxy S 5.) iPhone 4 16gb.

Doesn't sound much with the Galaxy S on fourth right? Actually, the first two phones here, the ISO3 and Lynx 3D, are Androids.

And more Japanese Androids to come. The Toshiba REGZA IS04 has just been released. More coming, like the Sharp Galapagos. The Revolution has begun for Japanese mobile, some already prophetically citing the end of the Keitai and the rise of the Sumarutofono. Sharp is leading the way in Androids in Japan, the poetic irony being that Sharp is also the first company to work closely with Andy Rubin for then Sidekicks of the past.