FinancialWar

Android currently have 75% of the smartphone market share, undisputed in terms of number of users and popularity, but one day, as with everything, nothing last forever.

Do you think it will be one of the currently available mobile OS that will dethrone Android in the future or will it be something completely new that does not exist now.

Firefox OS, WP, Tizen, Ubuntu, or some other linux OS?

I think and hope Android will be around for a long time like Windows for desktop.

chanchan05

Currently its a two horse race, and from the looks of things, Android will stay on top for a long while. The three biggest smartphone OS currently are Android, iOS and Windows, with Windows targeting the iOS users, not Android, in terms of features and functionality. In ecosystem design its closer to iOS than Android, but brings a bit more freedom in what it allows and what it does not. It will still take time before it catches up to the two, if it ever will, but based on that, I don't see it dethroning Android.

Tizen, Sailfish, Bada and other smartphone OS are just either too new, or has too little ecosytem and financial support to become any real threat to iOS and Android. Even Windows has a big "?" hanging over it.

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zuben el genub

If a Linux phone could be dealt with and customized like the computer OS - I think a lot of Linux people would jump. That's still a minority. But if customization was easier than rooting and couldn't brick a phone, probably a lot more would try it.

I think some are really getting annoyed with the "walled garden" approach. You did notice that on ICS you could disable the "crap" apps you didn't want. That means there must have been a lot of complaints, surveys, or whatever for Android to allow that. These people don't really want root, just control over what's on the phone and how it works.

Before that's pooh-poohed - it's possible. There's a camera app called CHDK that runs from the SD card, gives you more control, but doesn't mess with the camera software itself. If you remove the card, the camera reverts.

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Last edited by zuben el genub; January 17th, 2013 at 09:06 AM.

Digital Controller

Despite Windows hold on the PC market the Smart Phone market is another story with Android being the dominate and like chanchan has stated, I doubt anything will come around "soon" to dethrone it.

If anything we might see an outburst of people switching to Windows OS on phone just because the integration with their windows PC might be easier. However, if Google can push out Chrome faster and maybe make it more...of a desktop PC OS then there might be some market share Google could pick up in the PC world.

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fdbryant3

I think Window 8 (and subsquent revisions) has the best shot at it. It is a long game though and way to early to tell if Windows Phone will gain any traction much gain dominance. My prediction is that within 5 years Android and Windows will be the dominant mobile platforms with Apple in 3rd place. I don't know that Windows will ever topple Android though.

As for the other up and comers, unless they come up with something truly innovative to make people say I must have that - I think they will be going the way of WebOS (which actually was kinda unique and innovative).

The truth is I think the mobile market has matured rapidly and I think we are reaching a point where most upgrades are going to be evolutionary, rather than revolutionary.

Mostly Harmless

I don't give much to Windows OS taking over as the top mobile OS. Even after teaming up with a mobile giant (Nokia) they are still slow to make any grounds on catching up to the big two (iOS and Android). Plus there tablets are expensive and confusing (can anyone tell me the difference between Windows RT and Windows 8?). Consumers hate confusion (look at all the questions regarding software versions and hardware on this forum). Nokia would have made a killing by producing an Android powered phone (idiots).

I am willing to give RIM a chance despite there horrible attempt to get into the touchscreen section of smartphones. RIM is that zombie that just won't die. They have a very loyal following and even though they lost a lot of shares from the business world (iOS mainly taking some of that away, Android a bit) there are still tons of companies using BB. There chance (a rare one at that) is fast approaching with the planned January 30th event. I believe this will be there last chance to make a come back. To do so they will have to release a polished, intuitive, fun but serious at the same time operating system. They will also need to provide firm dates on January 30th of when the hardware will be available. If they leave the consumers guessing there won't be much of a following. My 2 cents anyway.

So I give it to RIM and BB10 to make a dent in the mobile OS wars. In no way will they topple either iOS or Android, but they definitely have a chance to bring in the numbers.

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chanchan05

A bit off topic but to answer a posted question:

Windows RT runs on an ARM based processor and is capable of running Windows Metro-based apps.

Windows 8 is a full desktop OS running on an x86 or x64 processor (laptop grade Intel i5 is the usual choice) despite being on a tablet. It can run any PC app provided the hardware can handle it. An example would be playing Skyrim for Windows on a Tablet using a mouse and a keyboard connected via bluetooth.

dan330

next 5 yrs... my prediction.

windows will grow.. with integration of PC (home and work) and Xbox... it will be a horse race between google and MS. MS can not afford to loose this! if they want PC and Laptop business..so they will throw everything they got at it. MS is willing to work with other OEM and aftermarket.

Apple will repeat their past history.. they will be stuck in that walled-garden.. and will be back to 3rd niche.. keeping about 10-20% of the market.

there will always new start-ups.. that will try. but because they dont have the deep pockets like Apple and MS.... they can not cross the first biggest hurdle: apps market!!!!!!!!!!!!!! so these will stay small and/or disappear. RIM is a good example of this. they would be about less than 5% of the market.


so.. google and MS will control about 85-75% of market.. It will be very interesting.

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Crashdamage

@dan330: You are correct sir!

Linux user #266351. Android since v1.0

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gtbarry

ios
withering daily

Windows 8
Very interesting to play with but also very dumbed down (see ios). Will have its greatest marketshare gains in the under 20 crowd and may grow with them.

webos, blackberry, etc (in their current forms)
It would take a major shift from one of these to overtake android. With google on the forefront of the software side and the combined R&D of Samsung, Motorola, LG, etc on the hardware side - it would be hard for one of these to pop up.

The winner will have to be open source/cross hardware, etc.

Palmetto Fellow

Symbian for sure

Adauth

None. At least not for quite some time. Android is huge already and it's just starting to come into it's own.

!on

Agreed. The best thing with android is customization, rooted or not. That's what's kept them on top of iOS. Even for people less nerdy ( ) than us with root, the temptation of custom roms is till there, especially because of manufacturer updates being so limited. So if ubuntu OS comes with different 'flavors' like in computers then that would be big. As would Firefox, being open source.

Windows are getting better also. It's a bit sad because they invented Pocket PC & now we're talking pocket computers ala smartphone. Good to see them bounce back, we need choices, not limitations .

Yatezy

Realistically, Android owns that chunk of a market because of the cheaper phones available. Most of the people who have bought a budget phone don't even realise/know/care that it's running Android.

When we move onto premium priced products though it's safe to say Apple is the winner here.

FinancialWar

That is not true, SGS3 out sells Iphone 5

mikedt

I bet most people who buy high end phones might not realise/know/care it's running Android, or even know what that implies. It's a phone, it can browse, they can play Facebook, they can install apps, they can take pictures. They might know they got a Samsung Galaxy S3 or something, but that's probably about it.

Where's that, United States? Probably find world wide, that Samsung premium phones are far outselling the Apple iPhone. Plus there's HTC, Motorola, Sony, etc....all Android.

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Last edited by mikedt; January 20th, 2013 at 03:54 AM.

Davdi

People might not care when the get their first LG/Samsung/Sony phone that it's running Android. But when they hit a problem, google for 'Android Forum' and wind up here, then they'll start to care when they realize all the good stuff they could do.

Yatezy

I imagine it's world wide. Here's a link showing the iphone is 100 million sales ahead of sammys top line phones

bgr.com/2013/01/17/iphone-sales-comparisons-samsung-294236/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaig n=Feed%3A+TheBoyGeniusReport+%28BGR+|+Boy+Genius+R eport%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

That graph doesn't include the the first 3 iphones aswell so I image its a lot higher. Also shows the S3 and i5 on level pegging now.

gtbarry

Only if people like paying too much for antiquated hardware, a stale OS and a dumb-downed experience that is controlled and sanitized.

Yatezy

I know that, you know that and everyone else on the board knows that but we are the minority. Mikedt put it best, most people just want to make calls, text, play on Facebook and have apps and of all the companies out there, Apple has a far better marketing system which makes it seem like it does more than it can.

I know a few people who have gone from apple to android and back again because it's easier. Android is harder work than ios and some, if not most, can't be bothered with the extra time you need to learn to use it. I've also got friends who think their iphones can do everything because they don't know any better.

Anyway back to the OP, I would honestly be surprised if windows ever overtakes either of them.

Bnice

When you move on to a premium device Apple still get beat. Samsung premium phone sell more than the iphone. When Apple comes out with the rumor cheaper iphone, what will be the reason then when Android still dominate the market? The problem with Apple is they offer the same stale os,a choice of black or white phone and whatever they bring to the table Android already have or been doing it for sometime.

Last edited by Bnice; January 20th, 2013 at 03:48 PM.

Yatezy

How are they beat? 3 of apples phones have sold over 100 million more than 5 of Samsungs flagships. The S3 is the only one to match it and the i5 has caught it up already in half the time it's been out.

I'm no means a fan of apple, hence why I'm on Android, but you've gotta be realistic here. The i5 has been classed as a huge disappointment yet (according to that graph) has been taken up the quickest of all of them, it's still gonna rise and will probably sell more than the 4s (which has sold probably the same amount as the S1, S2 and S3 put together).

mydian

Samsung isn't the only Android manufacturer. Comparing Apple sales to flagship Samsung sales is pointless. Sure, Samsung sells the most Android powered phones.. but to compare Apple to Android sales you have to look at every brand that sells an Android powered phone. Even if you just want to compare high end phones you have to include HTC, Motorola, LG, etc. They all have high end phones.

Back on topic, Windows Phone if it ever took off could probably dethrone Android. And Microsoft better hope that they do because they are running out of time. Android is looking pretty unstoppable right now. And no way will iOS ever be the #1 mobile OS just because it's too locked down. It may do better in some countries but for at least the next 5 years I'm betting on Android. Especially with all the cheap phones out there. Apple will never make a cheap phone. You can already get an iPhone4 for free with a new contract, doesn't get much cheaper than that.

Last edited by mydian; January 21st, 2013 at 12:42 AM.

dan330

apple said that they will never make a bigger phone or a cheaper product.
the ipad does not need to be smaller!

but released the ip5 with 4in..screen

just released a 7.9in ipad

then there are current rumors of a the new release of a cheaper iphone for poor countries.

apple is starting to see the light.. but i dont think they will change enough to stop the tide. just slow it down. they will have to make a fundamental change in strategy to derail this trend. open things up..

Digital Controller

I really don't think they will ever make a different iPhone product. Personally they could just release older versions of the iPhone in those countries.