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Old March 11th, 2014, 10:46 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Why I think Android will crash and burn AKA History repeats itself

Android as an operating system has been very good to we smartphone enthusiasts. Android stepped in to fill the gap caused by Microsoft taking away external memory support for its Windows Phone OS. Prior to that the Windows Mobile OS had full support for external memory cards and had succeeded in cruising past PALM as the up and coming OS for smartphone enthusiasts. Enthusiasts left Microsoft in droves once they eliminated external memory support from their Phone OS. Google in all its wisdom is following the same path having eliminated write access to external memory cards. Once Google finally puts its foot down and removes external memory support all together as they have implied they wish to do for our own good of course, well, as I said in this threads title; History repeats itself.

Now if we could just convince the carriers that rooting is not a valid reason to invalidate your warranty I'd be giving Cyanogenmod a good looking at.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 01:40 AM   #2 (permalink)
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as history has seen... all get over thrown .. eventually.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 02:28 AM   #3 (permalink)
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That's a bit deep :-)

I think the OP analysis doesn't stand close scrutiny though. There is no evidence that migration from Windows was caused by removal of SD card support or any other single factor for that matter; things are rarely that simple. Speculating on the future failure of Android on that basis has even less substance.

Of course it may turn out to be the case, who can say? That's why it's speculation :-)
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Old March 12th, 2014, 03:03 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Exactly!
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Old March 12th, 2014, 03:48 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Can't see Android being overthrown somehow, it's gotten way too big for that. Anyway what's going to take it's place, iOS (expensive), Windows (I've yet to see one), BlackBerry (bwahahaha!). Another thing, devices with those OSs only come from three manufacturer, Android devices come from hundreds, if not thousands of manufacturers now.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 04:24 AM   #6 (permalink)
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I'm thinking Samsung doesn't want to loose the memory card market so TIZEN could be ramped up.... God save us from their way to large apps though. Cyanogenmod has a dedicated phone right now I believe. I'm not saying Android will disappear, I'm just saying it will loose its status as the #1 enthusiasts OS.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 09:23 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by dontpanicbobby View Post
I'm thinking Samsung doesn't want to loose the memory card market so TIZEN could be ramped up.... God save us from their way to large apps though. Cyanogenmod has a dedicated phone right now I believe. I'm not saying Android will disappear, I'm just saying it will loose its status as the #1 enthusiasts OS.
I know this phone, the Oppo N1, although I've not seen the CyanogenMod edition here. What runs on the Oppo phones I've seen is something called ColorOS, which is derived from CyanogenMod I believe. The N1 takes an SD, however Oppo's other flagship, the Find 5 or X909 does not. Which I think is quite unusual for a Chinese phone. Although Oppo does endorse and link to CyanogenMod, OmniROM, Pac ROM and Paranoid Android on their site for the Find 5, and does does not void warranty for rooted devices, unlike Samsung.
OPPO Find 5

I think in the future if you want an enthusiasts phone, might have to look towards China rather than Korea.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 09:32 AM   #8 (permalink)
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windows phone will get more traction.. my prediction... 2 more years it will be a major player.

will windows phone be the top? i don't know..
will android always be number 1? nothing stays on top for ever!!!!!
android is to large to fall off the top??? how many companies have thought that.. and are NO longer around???

i am sure some thing will surpass android..and something will surpass that. what, i don't know.. but i cant wait to find out
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Old March 12th, 2014, 09:53 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by dan330 View Post
windows phone will get more traction.. my prediction... 2 more years it will be a major player.
Maybe in countries like the US or UK, it could be a major player. However I'm thinking of where I am, China, along with India etc. Windows Phone devices have a problem I think, without carrier subsidy they're relatively expensive. Cheapest Windows Phone I can find is around $300. The world's largest carrier, China Mobile does not exactly go out of their way to promote Windows Phone in their stores, two non-working Nokia dummies, in amongst hundreds of Android phones.

Apple does quite well because they're a luxury brand in emerging markets. Microsoft, Windows and Nokia are not really associated with luxury and prestige. Sure this is why Nokia is going to do the low cost Asha and Android devices, although I think they won't exactly push the Android brand, more likely be Microsoft's Bing services.

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will windows phone be the top? i don't know..
will android always be number 1? nothing stays on top for ever!!!!!
android is to large to fall off the top??? how many companies have thought that.. and are NO longer around???
Android is basically free and devices come from literally hundreds of manufacturers. However yes that could change, something like Tizen or Ubuntu which are also free and not controlled by one corporation.

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i am sure some thing will surpass android..and something will surpass that. what, i don't know.. but i cant wait to find out
It's interesting to try and predict and speculate what will happen in the future.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 10:06 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Bean View Post
That's a bit deep :-)

I think the OP analysis doesn't stand close scrutiny though. There is no evidence that migration from Windows was caused by removal of SD card support or any other single factor for that matter;
I'm not even sure there was a migration from Windows in any significant numbers.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 10:17 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Google is the new M$, and M$ is now the underdog. Apple was on the verge of extinction at one time. BlackBerry was on top by a large margin only a few short years ago. Who knows what happens next, but I hope Google gets humbled soon because they are pissing me off lately.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 10:22 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Short term - I don't see Android going anywhere.

Long term - 10+ years from now anything is possible.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 11:03 AM   #13 (permalink)
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30 years ago it looked like Big Blue would rule forever

15 years ago it looked like MS would rule forever

3 years ago it looked like Apple was about to start ruling forever

Now, it looks like Android will rule forever

Things change. About the only thing you can predict with any confidence is that your predictions will prove to be wrong
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Old March 12th, 2014, 11:34 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Remember internal storage has got better. And Nexus have got better. I can finally say a 32gb nexus would do me fine.
Its good to have choices though. Lets see what this One Plus One cyanogen phone brings. Lookin good so far
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Old March 12th, 2014, 11:48 AM   #15 (permalink)
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the only constant is..... CHANGE


evolution demands change to stay alive.... or go extinct
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Old March 12th, 2014, 12:01 PM   #16 (permalink)
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I would like to see another serious OS come to the market, not to kill Android, or IOS, or even Windows, but rather to push them.

We are in a situation now where everyone knows their place and how much of the pie they get and they are happy with it. If they do better, great, if they stay status quo, that's great also.

The average person doesn't understand the differences between OS's. They know iPhone is sleek and trendy and they know Android is cool and edgy, yet geeky (as in meant for techy types) and that Windows phone is the phone with a great camera.
Another great OS is needed to shake things up.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 12:06 PM   #17 (permalink)
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i think .. windows phone.. will shake things up.

because they are hungry/starving... less than 5% of the market share.
but they got deep pockets. they know this is very important to their over all survival.
they need to get over 20% of the market.. or die!
Computing is moving towards mobile.. and if they aint in it.. they will be gone.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 12:29 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MLSS View Post
I would like to see another serious OS come to the market, not to kill Android, or IOS, or even Windows, but rather to push them.

We are in a situation now where everyone knows their place and how much of the pie they get and they are happy with it. If they do better, great, if they stay status quo, that's great also.

The average person doesn't understand the differences between OS's. They know iPhone is sleek and trendy and they know Android is cool and edgy, yet geeky (as in meant for techy types) and that Windows phone is the phone with a great camera.
Another great OS is needed to shake things up.
Bit off topic but i love this lol uploadfromtaptalk1394645369877.jpg
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Old March 12th, 2014, 02:07 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodspike View Post
I'm not even sure there was a migration from Windows in any significant numbers.
I don't know either but I gave it the benefit of the doubt otherwise the whole OP would be meaningless.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 04:28 PM   #20 (permalink)
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I don't think that Windows Mobile stopped being relevant because they stopped supporting external storage... they stopped being relevant because they weren't particularly good and, as much as it pains me to refer to the iPhone this way, something better came along.

Though I still think the 1st gen iPhone, as it was shipped by Apple at like $500 with two year contract and no app support, wasn't worth buying.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 04:54 PM   #21 (permalink)
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I don't think that Windows Mobile stopped being relevant because they stopped supporting external storage... they stopped being relevant because they weren't particularly good and, as much as it pains me to refer to the iPhone this way, something better came along.

Though I still think the 1st gen iPhone, as it was shipped by Apple at like $500 with two year contract and no app support, wasn't worth buying.
Right before the smart phone .. I remember my friends all excited about a Nokia feature phone.. It was all chrome.. And it was $700

I thought that was ridiculous
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Old March 12th, 2014, 08:09 PM   #22 (permalink)
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I don't think Windows Phone (or rather Windows Mobile) vs Palm was about SD, because Treos always supported SD anyway (as did all Androids of that period). WebOS died because of poor initial hardware and bad distribution deals, fairly typical of Palm management who spend most of a decade throwing away an early lead through a series of absurd decisions ("let's spin off the OS as a separate company and the license the right to use it" - the bankers who managed that deal must have been laughing into their champagne).

I'd note that the evidence is that manufacturers haven't given up, though Google have limited functionality (Samsung and Sony have kept external memory, all the runes say that HTC is bringing it back). But equally I'd say that given sufficient internal storage it's not a big deal. OK, if you are a fool who doesn't back up that can be a problem, but then SD cards are less reliable than internal storage (especially in Samsung devices ), so that cuts both ways. So if manufacturers step up on the storage, I think that for most the SD thing won't matter as much as you think (says a man who keeps his nandroids off-device these days, but has somewhat surprisingly adapted to a mere 32GB storage).

No OS will ever maintain dominance long-term. Stuff moves on. But I don't think that SD support is the determining factor even to the enthusiast market, and am certain it is not for the mass market. That's not to say it's not something I consider desirable, just that I don't think it's as important as you do.
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Old March 12th, 2014, 11:37 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by SiempreTuna View Post

Things change.
change is certain in everything. except vending machines.
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Old March 13th, 2014, 05:23 AM   #24 (permalink)
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I think that Android will remain the most popular OS - if not Google's version, then a fork.

Because it's free.

If you look at open source software where it has been adopted, the users don't seem to go back to proprietary software. Examples are Linux and Apache which run on a large number of servers holding up the Internet.

Why would anyone ditch free software that is solid and respected by the industry?

Linux hasn't been taken up in the same way by the desktop PC market, but if it had, then I believe it would remain dominant. Free licensing is a big draw for manufacturers and corporations, and this is one of the main reasons for Android's success, particularly with low budget devices.

Android is enjoying the success that Linux would have if it was taken up by a low budget desktop PC market that was growing as strongly as the mobile market. But I guess that opportunity would now be seized by Chrome.

I don't think a free open source mobile OS is going away. Even if Google upset everyone, an offshoot will emerge to replace Android.
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Old March 13th, 2014, 07:15 AM   #25 (permalink)
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We like newer & better. Where is the newer & better? Where's Firefox?

I think these things come in waves, we have everything we need in an OS (pretty much, save for childish battles over "can your phone do this" weak gimmicks) & now we need hardware to catch up again.

Price is a HUGE factor & something that the greedy manufacturers are underestimating. Lots of people don't want contracts, & we can now get monthly contracts PAYG, so why overprice the flagship models & price people out? A phone with decent hardware & OS at a decent price will overtake other 'flagship' models & possibly spur on a sibling range based on that model.

We could all be having the best camera phone (optics, zoom), best DAC on board & latest android but they still insist on charging mega £$. Meanwhile in 'open source' land things are going VERY slowly.
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Old March 13th, 2014, 07:53 AM   #26 (permalink)
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What you will eventually get is "free" data supported by ads that are approved by the carrier.
Will The FCC Allow AT&T To Go Ahead With Its "Sponsored Data" Plan? - Deadline.com

I suppose the ad maker will subsidize the phone.
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Old March 13th, 2014, 08:04 AM   #27 (permalink)
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I dont agree that the hardware has to catch up. The hardware and OS are there. Imo its the software that has to catch up (apps)
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Old March 16th, 2014, 04:42 AM   #28 (permalink)
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My point was more about price. The flagship models have the best cameras, best audio chips, biggest storage. In terms of "catching up" then I'm really talking trickle down effect to the mid range & so on. I think with phones it takes longer to trickle down due to the contracts where they can now get away with charging some of the price even before they start paying monthly installments, like with new iPhones.

The biggest sellers on PAYG or sim-free are the lower to mid range & they get 'adequate' hardware. In a few years the trickle down effect will have reached them but the flagship models will have advanced further too. If they stuck their necks out a bit & offered better hardware (cameras, storage, DAC...) on the mid-range at mid-range prices they would shift loads. But they're happy enslaving people in contracts with flagship models especially when they can charge them for what would previously been a free handset.
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Old March 16th, 2014, 01:47 PM   #29 (permalink)
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Yeah true mate. I hope more people start buying phones off contract. Phones like the nexus 5 or moto g.
I buy my phones outright
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Old March 18th, 2014, 04:32 PM   #30 (permalink)
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While planning for the future as much as one can in order to be relevant and prepared, I'm still very much a live in the present person.

Currently I'm am absolutely thrilled with my nearly flawless Nexus 5. After months of very heavy usage it's truly met 98% of my expectations. The first smartphone that's as much fun to use today as it was on day one.

Admittedly an early adopter, from my G1 of years ago until now Android has provided a great learning experience. This Nexus 5 of mine is a milestone of sorts because it is so good. That said, I plan on using it longer than any previous model.

About the only upcoming phone that grabs my attention is the OnePlus One.

Another phone for another day at some point in the future.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 04:56 PM   #31 (permalink)
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Yeah the nexus 5 is definitely a milestone imo. A fairly priced superphone. Its completely "over" spec'd and future proof (although i have a feeling the next nexus is gona have a lot of new sensors and instantly make everything else obsolete lol)
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Old March 18th, 2014, 05:22 PM   #32 (permalink)
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I havent read through the whole thread but after reading mikes post, i entirely agree. (Because mikes a pretty smart guy )

But i agree. Even if people only left windows phone because of this reason, times have changed and smartphones are much more central to our lives now. Now android is everywhere, already cemented as the software for the smartphone era. Just as windows was for the desktop.

Its actually noble of appl to keep a decent market share in a new market era. Theyve done better than microsoft has
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Old March 19th, 2014, 06:26 PM   #33 (permalink)
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Google is doing everything they criticized Samsung of doing. Whip out your Nexus device brand new, it comes with all the Google stuff. Hangouts, Music, Newsstand, Google+, etc. Can't be uninstalled without root. How is that not basically the same as bloatware? That and to this day Play Store still refuses to work correctly. I got rid of it and thr rest of Gapps long ago. Surprisingly I've never had a reboot, crash, lag, or horrible battery since.

It won't be another operating system that upsurps Android, it will be Google policies leaving bad tastes in the user's mouths. Rooters, rom flashers, etc are a minority among the user base. Google is too big for their own good. They encourage and demand the removal of two key advantages over Apple, removable storage and replaceable batteries. They cause development of AOSP alternatives to Google apps to cease. They criticize Samsung and Amazon for offering competition to Google Play. They seem to be moving away from the Android name itself. Their ads lately refer to the entire ecosystem as Google Play.
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Old March 19th, 2014, 07:23 PM   #34 (permalink)
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Google is doing everything they criticized Samsung of doing. Whip out your Nexus device brand new, it comes with all the Google stuff. Hangouts, Music, Newsstand, Google+, etc. Can't be uninstalled without root. How is that not basically the same as bloatware? That and to this day Play Store still refuses to work correctly. I got rid of it and thr rest of Gapps long ago. Surprisingly I've never had a reboot, crash, lag, or horrible battery since.

It won't be another operating system that upsurps Android, it will be Google policies leaving bad tastes in the user's mouths. Rooters, rom flashers, etc are a minority among the user base. Google is too big for their own good. They encourage and demand the removal of two key advantages over Apple, removable storage and replaceable batteries. They cause development of AOSP alternatives to Google apps to cease. They criticize Samsung and Amazon for offering competition to Google Play. They seem to be moving away from the Android name itself. Their ads lately refer to the entire ecosystem as Google Play.
I can see them wanting to do that. Google Play® as their own trademark for Google's own suite of proprietary apps and services. That where they make their $$$, it's not from Android. Android is the OS, and devices can be called Android and use the branding even if they have absolutely nothing to do with Google. Some manufacturers make Android devices and they don't even call it Android, they're using their own marques.
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Old March 19th, 2014, 07:45 PM   #35 (permalink)
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How is the Google Experience, Google Play not yet another skin? Or is it only a skin when Samsung or HTC does it?
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Old March 19th, 2014, 08:12 PM   #36 (permalink)
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How is the Google Experience, Google Play not yet another skin? Or is it only a skin when Samsung or HTC does it?
The Google Nexus devices, yes I do think of it as a "skin", or a suite of Google's services running on top of Android, now apparently under the brand name of Google Play. That's likely how they want to market it now. Buy a Samsung phone, that's Samsung's experience device, it's got all their stuff on it. Buy a Samsung where I am, you're getting all the Samsung stuff, nothing Google.

Myself, I wouldn't buy a Nexus, it wouldn't suit my requirements.
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Old March 19th, 2014, 08:45 PM   #37 (permalink)
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Seems to me that THE draw to Android (originally) was the fact it could be customized to the user's desire. iPhone, Windows phones, and Blackberry couldn't. Neither, really, could Palm

That's where I see the problem for Android: between Google, manufacturers, and carriers all locking stuff down, that "make it what you want" is starting to go away
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Old March 19th, 2014, 08:56 PM   #38 (permalink)
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Most of this is under the assumption that in 10 years for now we will still have smart phones around as we understand them now. As far as the OS goes who knows.

As far as Google goes I really don't mind their "Bloatware" as I use 98% of it. What I really hate is the carriers bloat as it is never anything useful to me.
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Old March 19th, 2014, 09:52 PM   #39 (permalink)
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I honestly prefer Samsung and Amazon's offerings and long since removed Play Store and the rest off. Ironically ive never had trouble since. I got tired of Google forgetting my purchases, refusing to download, Google Now always getting my location wrong, and my device not being compatible with some app that ran fine when sideloaded.

Seriously, my Nexus 10 isn't compatible with NBA Jam, yet my Galaxy Tab 2 can run it just fine. Wtf Play Store?
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Old March 20th, 2014, 12:11 AM   #40 (permalink)
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Google is doing everything they criticized Samsung of doing. Whip out your Nexus device brand new, it comes with all the Google stuff. Hangouts, Music, Newsstand, Google+, etc. Can't be uninstalled without root. How is that not basically the same as bloatware?
I'll help you understand what bloatware is. The definition of bloatware is apps and services pre-installed on any phone by the carrier that sells the device.

IE: AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, or Sprint apps are bloatware. It's those companies desire to generate extra revenue via their own apps.

Nexus devices are free of bloatware. Just like iPhone's, they come equipped with proprietary apps which in this example are exclusive to Google.

If you don't like Google Apps and Services, then simply avoid buying a Nexus.

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That and to this day Play Store still refuses to work correctly.
You must have some sort of corruption, virus or malware that's interfering with the Google Play Store. I have been enjoying excellent performance from the Play Store since it was first released, some time ago.

I've used it with a Galaxy S3 & S4. A few HTC models, Nexus 5 & 7 models as well. It's been every bit as good as iTunes and the iPhone App Store I've used since day one for my iPhone's. All without a single problem.

At the end of the day I choose what's best for my requirements, of all the smartphones I've owned the Nexus 5 is my all time favorite.

YMMV.
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Old March 20th, 2014, 02:23 AM   #41 (permalink)
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If you don't like Google Apps and Services, then simply buy a phone from China.
FTFY.

Thing is just about all Android phones sold in the US, UK, etc. come with Google apps, whether you want them or not, and that's in addition to whatever Samsung, HTC, Verizon, Vodafone, etc. adds on.

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You must have some sort of corruption, virus or malware that's interfering with the Google Play Store. I have been enjoying excellent performance from the Play Store since it was first released, some time ago.
I've had trouble with the Play Store on and off. September last year seemed to be some major problems with it, which was discussed at length on here. Recently seems to have settled down though.
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Old March 20th, 2014, 03:28 AM   #42 (permalink)
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This whole conversation is why I love this forum. I basically said Google's Android division in F'ing up and I didn't get called on it. Just about anywhere else I'd probably have been treated like a heretic and ostracized or at the very least have had to try very hard to ignore the opprobrium of the masses. Android Forums is still the friendliest forum around.
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Old March 20th, 2014, 05:36 AM   #43 (permalink)
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This whole conversation is why I love this forum. I basically said Google's Android division in F'ing up and I didn't get called on it. Just about anywhere else I'd probably have been treated like a heretic and ostracized or at the very least have had to try very hard to ignore the opprobrium of the masses. Android Forums is still the friendliest forum around.


I agree, but also we are not Google fan boys. We like Android. It doesn't mean we have to express any loyalty to its creators. We would like it regardless of who created it (unless it was maybe Apple ).
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Old March 20th, 2014, 08:48 AM   #44 (permalink)
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I agree, but also we are not Google fan boys. We like Android. It doesn't mean we have to express any loyalty to its creators. We would like it regardless of who created it (unless it was maybe Apple ).
I don't mind some Google stuff being pre-installed, the things I actually use. Namely Play Store, Gmail, Maps and Youtube. Don't need or use Drive, Books, Music, Games or Newsstand. And that's the way Androids in Hong Kong come, they just have the basic Google stuff, and not Google Music, etc. I'll probably buy my next phone in HK for that reason.
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Old March 20th, 2014, 10:50 AM   #45 (permalink)
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You can disable most of the unwanted Google apps, which on a stock phone has the same effect as uninstalling.

The one that bothers me most is the integration of messages with Hangouts, as I've no interest in Hangouts (don't even have a G+ profile) and do use messages (they can mess up stuff like Google music/movies/books all they like because I don't use those ) . But as long as there are 3rd party solutions it's not a show-stopper for me.

There are limits to the Google integration for me, but so far any retrograde change (by my personal definition) just means I use the Google stuff less.
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Old March 20th, 2014, 07:24 PM   #46 (permalink)
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Play Store was unreliable for my use. Google Now sent me cards for time to home after I had been home, etc. Sync ate my battery. Device rebooted often. Ive removed everything Google, use Amazon Apps, Samsung apps, and Touchwiz fits me so well. Never been happier. I'm still rooted though

Between errors like Could not download due to an error, package file invalid, redundant Play Store install complete icons clogging up my notification area, I think the last straw was it telling me that GTA V Manual wasn't compatible with my device. I hate their annoying, always wrong filter! They really have no right to criticize Amazon and Samsung for offering their own alternatives to Google Play when the alternatives work fine, and Play Store has issues ever since day one which Google never fixes and often makes worse. At least Amazon saves the apk file. Play Store doesn't even do that!
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Old March 20th, 2014, 09:28 PM   #47 (permalink)
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No offense Nick, but it sounds like your iPads are jealous and are focusing their Reality Distortion Fields on you in an attempt to suppress Google Services.
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Old March 20th, 2014, 10:03 PM   #48 (permalink)
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What do you mean by not saving the apk, Nick?
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Old March 20th, 2014, 11:23 PM   #49 (permalink)
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>Just about anywhere else I'd probably have been treated like a heretic<

Ummmm... maybe we shouldn't tell him about the stake we have set up for him come Midsummer?
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Old March 20th, 2014, 11:26 PM   #50 (permalink)
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Play Store installs to /data/app which is inacessible with out root. Amazon and Samsung app stores not only install, they save the apk file into downloads, which does not require root. If Play Store thinks an app isn't compatible, it wont even allow the apk download and must skip thr install. It just blocks it completely.
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