As someone who would consider a netbook, and is a G1 owner I'll tell you why
Thanks, punkzanyj ... if this forum had a "thanks" button/feature, I'd have just clicked that.
The idea that netbooks are useless because you don't need a netbook if you have a desktop and a smartphone is pretty silly. For one, that same argument applies to laptops, and laptops are just fine as a market segment. And that right there tells you what a netbook's competition is: not smartphones and desktops, but laptops and UMPCs.
Laptops have evolved into replacements for low-end desktops. It used to be that people routinely had both, because a laptop wasn't up to the task of fully replacing a desktop. Around 2000, that stopped being the case. Unless you're doing high end engineering/rendering/cad work, or high end gaming, a good laptop can serve as your only computer. So, what happened to the old "shuttle computer" concept of the laptop? A light device for taking notes, doing light tasks while mobile, but not something you'd use as a desktop replacement?
That's pretty much the niche of the netbook. You might say "what about smartphones and MIDs". And I'd say: they're too feature limited, and in a lot of cases, they don't truly offer the full experience of a laptop or desktop. Ever try to add a tag in Google Reader, on your phone? Or add/edit a Gmail filter? I have yet to see a smartphone that can do those (not even the G1; I'm constantly having to mark Reader articles "keep unread" so that I can deal with them when I get back to my UMPC or desktop ... or leave an email unread so that I can "send as" one of my other email addresses) (as far as I know, no matter how much the newer smartphones say they give you the full/real web, they're lying, they just give you a better web experience that previous phones). Ever try to take an hours worth of meeting/lecture notes on your G1, Nokia E61i, Nokia N810, iPhone, or Blackberry? I've done it on an N810, but I had to use an external keyboard... and even then, it was rather limited. (I know, the N810 isn't a smartphone, it's a MID, but smartphone interfaces are even less functional than the N810's, so if you can't do it on an N810, you definitely can't do iton a smartphone). The G1 can do very light weight notes, but anything more is just "too much" ... and syncing those notes back to somewhere useful is a pain in the butt.
With a netbook, with some adjustment, you can touch type on it. You can, in most cases, run desktop apps on it for things like note-taking, and you get the real web on it. You can hook it up to a KVM switch to use it like a light desktop. You can hook it up to a standard projector to make presentations. There are lots of sync options for getting your notes and such (anything the vendor didn't directly support) back up to your desktop.
The idea that a smartphone displaces a netbook is absolutely silly. The real competition for netbooks is laptops and UMPC's. Both laptops and UMPCs tend to be MUCH more expensive than a netbook ($1200+ for a laptop or UMPC, $300-$900 for a netbook). And laptops are HUGE compared to a netbook.
At first, I wasn't interested in a netbook at all. It was just "a tiny laptop". And "too big" compared to my N810. But over time I realized that instead of the EeePC being too big, the N810 was really "too small". The three things my N810 had that a good smartphone didn't were "800x600 4.8inch display", "real SSH+VNC", and "real web browser". Everything else was effectively a preference for one pocketable vs another. But over time, I found that it's small display/keyboard and lack of connectivity were too annoying. I didn't want to carry one tiny connected and limited use device (phone), and a second tiny device that was useful and non-connected, and then have to add a third device that was fully useful and merely small as opposed to tiny.
So then I started to evaluate UMPCs and netbooks. Laptops are just too big (my gadget bag is big enough for a Samsung Q1 Ultra, or possibly and 8.9" netbook -- anything I buy will have to fit into that bag; it's a Maxpedition Colossus if anyone wants to look it up). I don't want to carry a big ol' laptop bag, or laptop backpack/etc. I want something small that I just sling over my back and barely notice. But it has to fit into my mobile device strategy:
- One pocketable device, which is always* connected, sync'ed for calendar/contacts/etc., and usable for quick and dirty work like checking web monitors for my servers, maybe making quick web console changes, and maybe text console changes via an SSH program. Ideally, it would have SSH+VNC support for GUI console access, and do tethering to support my next item. It must also be a phone of some sort (I could tolerate a VOIP-only device, if the quality is high enough ... but I have yet to use a VOIP service that didn't suffer from too many distortions), and it must have a physical keyboard (not going to debate it; virtual keyboards are just not accept able to me). (* always meaning "wherever there is a signal"; I don't expect it to be connected when I'm out in the high desert, or in a remote mountain valley)
- One medium size device, which can run real apps (fully featured web browser, fully featured Office apps, fully featured IM apps, fully SSH+VNC), with touch typing for comfortable typing at full speed. It has to be small enough to fit in my gadget bag, light enough that I don't notice carrying it in my gadget bag, and it has to have some form of internet connectivity (Idealy, internal PCI-Express-Mini card slot for native 3G/4G access; tethering through my phone is an acceptable alternative; an external data card is barely acceptable). It also has to be small enough for me to comfortably use it just in my two hands (not even on my lap), such as when I'm on a train or on the express bus that connects San Jose (where I live) and Santa Cruz (where I work). Last, it has to be able to display itself on a regular monitor some how (having a VNC server that I can somehow securely display on my desktop's monitor is fine).
- Any other device I carry must be able to fit in my gadget bag, and not need me to directly interact with it (except maybe to turn it on and off, and charging it). So, for example, if the lack of tethering on my G1 forces me to get a Cradlepoint router, then that's fine, because I can leave it in the bottom of my bag and not care about it. Whereas separating the first device into a MID and a dumbphone isn't acceptable because it means I'd have to touch both devices in order to get things done. Other devices that could fit into this category include the elusive, often demo'ed, but never released, bluetooth hard drives.
- Oh, and, the OS I use for the pocketable and netbook/UMPC must be open source. These days that's pretty much going to eliminate anyone othr than Symbian and Android on the phone, and Android, Linux, *BSD on the netbook/UMPC. If Android fixes a few things (full Gmail features, full Google Reader features, full Google Docs features, SSH+VNC, more IM features, SyncML client for Calendar) it would be ideal across the board. Otherwise, I'll probably end up with some Ubuntu version on the netbook/UMPC.
My ideal would be:
Pocketable: A slightly better Android phone ... something the shape of the AT&T Quickfire, with a tilt screen, running Android, with tethering and SSH+VNC support.
netbook/UMPC:A convertible-tablet netbook running Ubuntu of some sort. I'd really love Ubuntu-UMPC on the Fujitsu Lifebook U820 ... if Ubuntu-UMPC was a little better polished, and the U820 had an internal PCI-Express-Mini slot for an optional 3G card. I'm really looking forward to the convertible tablet version of the Classmate 2go netbook, and the EeePC T91, once I find out what their linux versions wil be.
What I'm using right now:
Pocketable: The G1. It would be nice if I could get the VNC Viewer to do password authentication while tunneled through SSH/ConnectBot (it says it supports it now, but I haven't been able to get it to work), and if it did tethering (that issue might actually get me to switch back to my E61i for my pocketable).
netbook/UMPC: Samsung Q1 Ultra running Ubuntu-UMPC. It has some rough edges, and limited battery life (2.25 hours). And its built in thumb keyboard has some shortcomings. Using this for a few months has pretty much shifted me towards wanting a convertible-tablet netbook (I like the touch screen tablet ability, but there are cases where I definitely want/need a bigger keyboard than a thumb keyboard; most UMPCs have a thumb keyboard instead of a real keyboard). And, overall, the UMPC category is priced higher than what options it gives you over the cheaper netbook category. This, I'm gravitating more toward the netbook afterall.
A second idea, if Android gets those features fixed, would be a Redfly for Android device. Especially if they had a convertible-tablet version of their "netbook" like device. But this option heavily depends upon Android fixing those 6 issues.
But, to get back to the original point: no, netbooks aren't the thing displaced by a smartphone nor desktop. MIDs are displaced by smartphones, IMO. Or, they will be as the smartphone continues to evolve (once the have real browsers, for example). The three current market segments I see are:
- pocketables: smartphones and MIDs (or "MID-like", as the Nokia tablets are technically not true MIDs, as the term was defined by Intel... because they don't have Intel processors).
- Netbooks and UMPCs: there are various ways to delineate these, but in my mind UMPCs (like the OQO, Sony UX, Samsung Q1/Q1 Ultra) are more expensive, and tend to be tablet oriented, with or without a physical thumb keyboard. Netbooks tend to be cheaper and mini-laptops (with or without a convertible-tablet format).
- Laptops and Desktops: these days, laptops are really like "all one one" desktops... except they can be folded up and taken with you. The differences are obscure, unless you really need a high end desktop for either gaming or heavy computing work.
If you need something bigger than a pocketable, but lighter/smaller than a desktop or laptop, then the netbook is not a lost category. And a smartphone will not satisfy your needs there. In that case, a netbook's competition will be an UMPC, and your main decision will be "do I need to go as big/expensive as a laptop, or can I get away with something smaller?"
