Why I think Android will crash and burn AKA History repeats itself

[dontpanicbobby]

Android as an operating system has been very good to we smartphone enthusiasts. Android stepped in to fill the gap caused by Microsoft taking away external memory support for its Windows Phone OS. Prior to that the Windows Mobile OS had full support for external memory cards and had succeeded in cruising past PALM as the up and coming OS for smartphone enthusiasts. Enthusiasts left Microsoft in droves once they eliminated external memory support from their Phone OS. Google in all its wisdom is following the same path having eliminated write access to external memory cards. Once Google finally puts its foot down and removes external memory support all together as they have implied they wish to do for our own good of course, well, as I said in this threads title; History repeats itself.

Now if we could just convince the carriers that rooting is not a valid reason to invalidate your warranty I'd be giving Cyanogenmod a good looking at.

 

[dan330]

as history has seen... all get over thrown .. eventually.

 

[John Bean]

That's a bit deep

I think the OP analysis doesn't stand close scrutiny though. There is no evidence that migration from Windows was caused by removal of SD card support or any other single factor for that matter; things are rarely that simple. Speculating on the future failure of Android on that basis has even less substance.

Of course it may turn out to be the case, who can say? That's why it's speculation

 

[dontpanicbobby]

Exactly!

 

[mikedt]

Can't see Android being overthrown somehow, it's gotten way too big for that. Anyway what's going to take it's place, iOS (expensive), Windows (I've yet to see one), BlackBerry (bwahahaha!). Another thing, devices with those OSs only come from three manufacturer, Android devices come from hundreds, if not thousands of manufacturers now.

 

[dontpanicbobby]

I'm thinking Samsung doesn't want to loose the memory card market so TIZEN could be ramped up.... God save us from their way to large apps though. Cyanogenmod has a dedicated phone right now I believe. I'm not saying Android will disappear, I'm just saying it will loose its status as the #1 enthusiasts OS.

 

[mikedt]

I'm thinking Samsung doesn't want to loose the memory card market so TIZEN could be ramped up.... God save us from their way to large apps though. Cyanogenmod has a dedicated phone right now I believe. I'm not saying Android will disappear, I'm just saying it will loose its status as the #1 enthusiasts OS.

I know this phone, the Oppo N1, although I've not seen the CyanogenMod edition here. What runs on the Oppo phones I've seen is something called ColorOS, which is derived from CyanogenMod I believe. The N1 takes an SD, however Oppo's other flagship, the Find 5 or X909 does not. Which I think is quite unusual for a Chinese phone. Although Oppo does endorse and link to CyanogenMod, OmniROM, Pac ROM and Paranoid Android on their site for the Find 5, and does does not void warranty for rooted devices, unlike Samsung.
OPPO Find 5

I think in the future if you want an enthusiasts phone, might have to look towards China rather than Korea.

 

[dan330]

windows phone will get more traction.. my prediction... 2 more years it will be a major player.

will windows phone be the top? i don't know..
will android always be number 1? nothing stays on top for ever!!!!!
android is to large to fall off the top??? how many companies have thought that.. and are NO longer around???

i am sure some thing will surpass android..and something will surpass that. what, i don't know.. but i cant wait to find out

 

[mikedt]

windows phone will get more traction.. my prediction... 2 more years it will be a major player.

Maybe in countries like the US or UK, it could be a major player. However I'm thinking of where I am, China, along with India etc. Windows Phone devices have a problem I think, without carrier subsidy they're relatively expensive. Cheapest Windows Phone I can find is around $300. The world's largest carrier, China Mobile does not exactly go out of their way to promote Windows Phone in their stores, two non-working Nokia dummies, in amongst hundreds of Android phones.

Apple does quite well because they're a luxury brand in emerging markets. Microsoft, Windows and Nokia are not really associated with luxury and prestige. Sure this is why Nokia is going to do the low cost Asha and Android devices, although I think they won't exactly push the Android brand, more likely be Microsoft's Bing services.

will windows phone be the top? i don't know..
will android always be number 1? nothing stays on top for ever!!!!!
android is to large to fall off the top??? how many companies have thought that.. and are NO longer around???

Android is basically free and devices come from literally hundreds of manufacturers. However yes that could change, something like Tizen or Ubuntu which are also free and not controlled by one corporation.

i am sure some thing will surpass android..and something will surpass that. what, i don't know.. but i cant wait to find out

It's interesting to try and predict and speculate what will happen in the future.

 

[Goodspike]

That's a bit deep

I think the OP analysis doesn't stand close scrutiny though. There is no evidence that migration from Windows was caused by removal of SD card support or any other single factor for that matter;

I'm not even sure there was a migration from Windows in any significant numbers.

 

[Gmash]

Google is the new M$, and M$ is now the underdog. Apple was on the verge of extinction at one time. BlackBerry was on top by a large margin only a few short years ago. Who knows what happens next, but I hope Google gets humbled soon because they are pissing me off lately.

 

[kate]

Short term - I don't see Android going anywhere.

Long term - 10+ years from now anything is possible.

 

[SiempreTuna]

30 years ago it looked like Big Blue would rule forever

15 years ago it looked like MS would rule forever

3 years ago it looked like Apple was about to start ruling forever

Now, it looks like Android will rule forever

Things change. About the only thing you can predict with any confidence is that your predictions will prove to be wrong

 

[funkylogik]

Remember internal storage has got better. And Nexus have got better. I can finally say a 32gb nexus would do me fine.
Its good to have choices though. Lets see what this One Plus One cyanogen phone brings. Lookin good so far

 

[dan330]

the only constant is..... CHANGE


evolution demands change to stay alive.... or go extinct

 

[MLSS]

I would like to see another serious OS come to the market, not to kill Android, or IOS, or even Windows, but rather to push them.

We are in a situation now where everyone knows their place and how much of the pie they get and they are happy with it. If they do better, great, if they stay status quo, that's great also.

The average person doesn't understand the differences between OS's. They know iPhone is sleek and trendy and they know Android is cool and edgy, yet geeky (as in meant for techy types) and that Windows phone is the phone with a great camera.
Another great OS is needed to shake things up.

 

[dan330]

i think .. windows phone.. will shake things up.

because they are hungry/starving... less than 5% of the market share.
but they got deep pockets. they know this is very important to their over all survival.
they need to get over 20% of the market.. or die!
Computing is moving towards mobile.. and if they aint in it.. they will be gone.

 

[funkylogik]

I would like to see another serious OS come to the market, not to kill Android, or IOS, or even Windows, but rather to push them.

We are in a situation now where everyone knows their place and how much of the pie they get and they are happy with it. If they do better, great, if they stay status quo, that's great also.

The average person doesn't understand the differences between OS's. They know iPhone is sleek and trendy and they know Android is cool and edgy, yet geeky (as in meant for techy types) and that Windows phone is the phone with a great camera.
Another great OS is needed to shake things up.

Bit off topic but i love this lol

 

[John Bean]

I'm not even sure there was a migration from Windows in any significant numbers.

I don't know either but I gave it the benefit of the doubt otherwise the whole OP would be meaningless.

 

[binaryhermit]

I don't think that Windows Mobile stopped being relevant because they stopped supporting external storage... they stopped being relevant because they weren't particularly good and, as much as it pains me to refer to the iPhone this way, something better came along.

Though I still think the 1st gen iPhone, as it was shipped by Apple at like $500 with two year contract and no app support, wasn't worth buying.

 

[dan330]

I don't think that Windows Mobile stopped being relevant because they stopped supporting external storage... they stopped being relevant because they weren't particularly good and, as much as it pains me to refer to the iPhone this way, something better came along.

Though I still think the 1st gen iPhone, as it was shipped by Apple at like $500 with two year contract and no app support, wasn't worth buying.

Right before the smart phone .. I remember my friends all excited about a Nokia feature phone.. It was all chrome.. And it was $700

I thought that was ridiculous

 

[Hadron]

I don't think Windows Phone (or rather Windows Mobile) vs Palm was about SD, because Treos always supported SD anyway (as did all Androids of that period). WebOS died because of poor initial hardware and bad distribution deals, fairly typical of Palm management who spend most of a decade throwing away an early lead through a series of absurd decisions ("let's spin off the OS as a separate company and the license the right to use it" - the bankers who managed that deal must have been laughing into their champagne).

I'd note that the evidence is that manufacturers haven't given up, though Google have limited functionality (Samsung and Sony have kept external memory, all the runes say that HTC is bringing it back). But equally I'd say that given sufficient internal storage it's not a big deal. OK, if you are a fool who doesn't back up that can be a problem, but then SD cards are less reliable than internal storage (especially in Samsung devices ), so that cuts both ways. So if manufacturers step up on the storage, I think that for most the SD thing won't matter as much as you think (says a man who keeps his nandroids off-device these days, but has somewhat surprisingly adapted to a mere 32GB storage).

No OS will ever maintain dominance long-term. Stuff moves on. But I don't think that SD support is the determining factor even to the enthusiast market, and am certain it is not for the mass market. That's not to say it's not something I consider desirable, just that I don't think it's as important as you do.

 

[boathead]

Things change.

change is certain in everything. except vending machines.

 

[davoid]

I think that Android will remain the most popular OS - if not Google's version, then a fork.

Because it's free.

If you look at open source software where it has been adopted, the users don't seem to go back to proprietary software. Examples are Linux and Apache which run on a large number of servers holding up the Internet.

Why would anyone ditch free software that is solid and respected by the industry?

Linux hasn't been taken up in the same way by the desktop PC market, but if it had, then I believe it would remain dominant. Free licensing is a big draw for manufacturers and corporations, and this is one of the main reasons for Android's success, particularly with low budget devices.

Android is enjoying the success that Linux would have if it was taken up by a low budget desktop PC market that was growing as strongly as the mobile market. But I guess that opportunity would now be seized by Chrome.

I don't think a free open source mobile OS is going away. Even if Google upset everyone, an offshoot will emerge to replace Android.

 

[!on]

We like newer & better. Where is the newer & better? Where's Firefox?

I think these things come in waves, we have everything we need in an OS (pretty much, save for childish battles over "can your phone do this" weak gimmicks) & now we need hardware to catch up again.

Price is a HUGE factor & something that the greedy manufacturers are underestimating. Lots of people don't want contracts, & we can now get monthly contracts PAYG, so why overprice the flagship models & price people out? A phone with decent hardware & OS at a decent price will overtake other 'flagship' models & possibly spur on a sibling range based on that model.

We could all be having the best camera phone (optics, zoom), best DAC on board & latest android but they still insist on charging mega