How is WiMax going to cover 120 million people

[SprintFun]

by the end of the year? They claim that they currently cover 40 million and the goal is to cover over 120 million by the end of the year. If you really think about it, that triples the current coverage in only 7ish months.

Here are the announced cities that are getting coverage, and how much population is in their entire Metro area. Its very important to know that an entire metro area will not get coverage. I'm sure they have a percentage goal they want to meet (in each metro), but I don't know what it is.

Confirmed upcoming cities:
New York City, 19,000,000 people
Los Angeles 13,000,000 people
San Francisco 4,300,000 people
Denver 2,500,000 people
Miami 5,500,000 people
Boston 4,500,000 people
Grand Rapids 750,000 people
Minneapolis 3,250,000 people
Kansas City 2,000,000 people
St Louis 2,800,000 people
Cincinnati 2,200,000 people
Cleveland 2,000,000 people
Pittsburgh 2,400,000 people
Houston 5,900,000 people
Salt Lake City 1,100,000 people
Washington DC 5,500,000 people

That comes out to approximately 76.6 million people that are due to get covered. But as I said previously, that assumes that the ENTIRE Metropolitan area gets coverage, and that's FAR from what will happen. I would imagine covering 75% of the people in the metro area would be a hell of an accomplishment still, and that would put it at approximate 57.5 million people.

So just for fun they claim 40 million are covered, another 57.5 million will gain WiMax coverage (using my generous 75% estimate), so where do the other 20+ million come from? My personal conclusion is that there's no way in hell they can reach a goal of 120 million people with 4G coverage by years end.

 

[eieio]

I am willing to bet you an EVO they will..

 

[neodorian]

They are hitting population-dense areas and then will probably fill in surrounding areas and burbs quickly after.

 

[eieio]

You did not add the cities that are already covered to you anticipated total?

 

[SprintFun]

They are hitting population-dense areas and then will probably fill in surrounding areas and burbs quickly after.

Right, but that's accounted for in the Metropolitan area, which usually extends well beyond the primary city and encompasses all surrounding counties.

You did not add the cities that are already covered to you anticipated total?

That's accounted for in the 40 million number already covered. Yes, there will be some expansion there I'm sure, but realistically that expansion wont be over a dense enough population to be 20 million significance...especially when the already accounted for includes places like Boise, Maui, Raleigh, and Lancaster.

 

[legacy]

I'm betting that plenty of unannounced cities are getting Wimax also.

 

[LatinP]

Those numbers are off 18million yes, in NY State but the city has less than 8.5m, these number are from a few years ago but still well over 10 million off...

Population - New York City Department of City Planning

 

[drksilenc]

not to mention in the pittsburgh area they are covering alot further than the metro area... you gotta think in alot of cities alot of the corp areas arnt actually near the city in the pittsburgh area most of the high value companies are 10+ miles out of the city and they would still want to cover them in the initial 4g deployment as to cash in on there buisness

o yea the company i work for is the company that places the antenna's for clear so theres one not even 1 mile away from where i work.

 

[chum1600]

The number for St Louis that you have there is who lives in the city limits. I understand that they will not cover a whole metro area, but if they only cover the city they will not get 3/4's of the people that actually live around the city. I live less then 5 miles from the city limits, but St. Louis county goes another 20 miles past my house.

If the towers website is correct and I don't know if those are all the 4G towers or not, but if those are 4G towers then 2 towers are past my house into the metro area.

 

[SprintFun]

Guys, my numbers are not off - they are the MSA numbers, not the numbers for the city's themselves. I'm trying to be overly generous to meet that 120 million person goal. MSA's stretch out and encompass all of the surrounding counties.

Table of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Edit: And these numbers are not constrained by state or city borders. So St. Louis includes MO/IL and New York includes NY/NJ, etc.

Edit 2: You can click on each MSA to see what exactly it covers.

 

[SprintFun]

there is a thing called exponential growth, basically as it grows, the rate of growth increases. this is how i see the 4g rollout, they already have half of those cities covered i guarantee and are just waiting to flip the switch on. it really doesn't take all that long to do what you are saying when you have a good amount of people. it's not like one group moves from city to city building the network, if that were the case, then say 1 city takes 1 month, then 12 cities would take 12 months.

BUT since each area destined to get 4g has its OWN crew building that network, than 12 cities can be done in one month if they have their own crew... i think after the may 12th event (when they are gonna light up NY) we will start to see light ups happening at a much more rapid pace and cities will be being turned on very frequently

And at the same time, they are going from giving a metro area of 19 million 4G coverage to a metro area with 2 million...it becomes much harder to hit a high goal of 120 million people once you run out of the big targets. So it balances out.

As I said in my original post, there needs to be more cities to reach that 120 million goal that what are currently known. Probably quite a few more actually.

And actually, I'm not sure if Houston is accounted for in the "40 million" number or not, since it's been on for a month or so. If it is then that is a huge chunk out of the prospective cities.

Later this year, Sprint expects to launch service in multiple markets, including Boston, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Los Angeles, Kansas City, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Salt Lake City, St. Louis and Washington, D.C. Today, Sprint 4G covers nearly 40 million people and expects to have up to 120 million people covered by the end of 2010. View 4G coverage for all Sprint 4G markets at

Sprint Extends 4G Leadership: Launches Service in Harrisburg, Lancaster, Reading and York - Yahoo! Finance

 

[cabbie]

the 4g coverage in houston extends well beyond the metro area, outside the loop and even outside the beltway to cover the suburbs

 

[SprintFun]

That IS the Metro area from an MSA perspective, where the numbers are from.

 

[neodorian]

Yeah, Baltimore's reaches out to Towson and some of the surrounding burbs as well. I would imagine that they will start filling in the gaps between cities along the highways like they did with 3G.

 

[RiverOfIce]

1.) Your numbers are wrong. When the switch if flipped, the metro areas are usually covered.
2.) The build does not stop when they turn it on. They continue to add base stations after the build.
3.) Customers is a marketing term.

Let look at a few cities.

Clear.com High Speed Mobile / Wireless Internet Service Provider

Look at the actual map. First portland, oregon area, The surrounding 20 or so miles are included with the build out.

Next look at Chicago. Once again, the build out has not stop, and now includes the surrounding 20 or so miles.

Next Philadelphia. Once again 20-30 miles.

Once the city is named, clear tries to cover the surrounding 30 or so miles. The metro area is only considered about 10 miles out. So your numbers are not including the areas that are covered out side the metro areas.

Once again. Look at the map, make up your own mind.

So the numbers are not that far off.

 

[SprintFun]

You're looking at cities where Clear already has a buildout over the span of a year+ I'd imagine. I'm talking about starting from scratch in a place like Pittsburgh or Cleveland. Of course as time progresses its going to expand outwards and cover more people, but not initially. And my numbers aren't off - learn what a MSA is before critiquing where the number is from. Your definition of metro area and the census bureua's is probably pretty different.

Edit: In your chicago example, Gary IN is included as part of the Chicago MSA (which is my basis for the numbers) and is still not covered by 4G access. So stop with this "it extends past the metro area" because it doesn't extend past the MSA area and subsequently invalidate my argument.

 

[eieio]

You're looking at cities where Clear already has a buildout over the span of a year+ I'd imagine. I'm talking about starting from scratch in a place like Pittsburgh or Cleveland. Of course as time progresses its going to expand outwards and cover more people, but not initially. And my numbers aren't off - learn what a MSA is before critiquing where the number is from. Your definition of metro area and the census bureua's is probably pretty different.

Edit: In your chicago example, Gary IN is included as part of the Chicago MSA (which is my basis for the numbers) and is still not covered by 4G access. So stop with this "it extends past the metro area" because it doesn't extend past the MSA area and subsequently invalidate my argument.

How long do you think it would take to build out a city?? I know there are tons of variables, but take a guess.

 

[SprintFun]

6 months to build out the city limits, another 6 months to get into the main suburbs, another 6 months for the outlying areas.

 

[RiverOfIce]

6 months to build out the city limits, another 6 months to get into the main suburbs, another 6 months for the outlying areas.

Alright, they are lying go sue them!

LOL. Some people.

They will have about 130 million covered.

6 months from when??

New York? 6 months from 2007?

 

[Rigmaster]

Perhaps there are some other plans for Wimax tower distribution that haven't been fully disclosed. Not sure the Walmart idea ever went anywhere, but that could easily have gotten coverage to 120mil.

I'd add that Wimax will reach some of the suburban areas around large metro-cities because it might be easier to get the towers up and running. With the range of the towers (up to 30 miles), going just outside a major city would be a better and cheaper approach.

Finally, there are Wimax towers currently active in NYC - just not owned by Sprint/Clearwire. Who's to say renting tower space won't happen while the Clearwire/Sprint infrastructure continues to be developed. Some of the companies that have existing towers have unused capacity that I'm sure could be rented for the right price.

 

[mkampy]

How long do you think it would take to build out a city?? I know there are tons of variables, but take a guess.

Barring problems such as power, or inventory of compnents, I would guess much shorter than 6 months.

I am curious how long YOU think it will take ( I suspect you know) But for grins how about Kansas City, even a few miles north of the Downtown core...

 

[cabbie]

You know, a partnership with CVS or walgreens would be better than walmart. Wallyworlds tend to be a 10-15 miles away from where a lot of people live where as far more people live extremely close to a drug store. When it comes to signal degradation, this would be better for consumers.

 

[JustFrozen]

Partner with McD - almost 15k locations in america alone. there's some SERIOUS coverage.

seriously, who doesnt live near one?

 

[cabbie]

from walgreen's 09 10K when they had 6997 stores:

Today, over 70% of the population lives within five miles of a Walgreens

 

[eieio]

Barring problems such as power, or inventory of compnents, I would guess much shorter than 6 months.

I am curious how long YOU think it will take ( I suspect you know) But for grins how about Kansas City, even a few miles north of the Downtown core...

Kind of impossible to answer. It is planned out but 9 out of ten times the best you can do with the plan is wipe you ass with it..

The efficiency and speed has gone up tremendously though..

Perfect world I could see a city being function in 90-120 days after approvals..