Go Back   Android Forums > Android Forums Community > The Lounge
The Lounge We're all friends here. Hang out, kick your feet up and talk about whatever the heck you want!

New Forums: Nexus Player | Nexus 9
Like Tree2Likes
  • 1 Post By thermal
  • 1 Post By eventhorizont

test: Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old January 31st, 2013, 02:20 AM   #1 (permalink)
Junior Member
Thread Author (OP)
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 85
 
Device(s):
Carrier: Not Provided

Thanks: 28
Thanked 23 Times in 13 Posts
Default Can the smartphone market support four healthy operating systems?

Do you think the smartphone market can healthily support Android, iOS, Windows mobile, and Blackberry?

Would you like to see one or two systems take 90% of the market, or would you prefer market shares to more approximate 40% - 30% - 15% - 15% between the four above?

I'm a little concerned that we may see Android/Google become the next Microsoft; extremely dominant due to good products, but also due to dying competition. And I'm not too crazy about how the Galaxy S3 and iPhone have something like 95% of smartphone profits, with everyone else barely hanging on.

In my heart, I'm rooting for Blackberry to at least eke out a survivable market share. I'd like to see three or four relatively successful competitors, with the companies pushing each other to make greater and greater products.
siggy1964 likes this.

Advertisements
thermal is offline  
Last edited by thermal; January 31st, 2013 at 02:26 AM.
Reply With Quote
sponsored links
Old January 31st, 2013, 03:46 AM   #2 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,634
 
Device(s):
Carrier: Not Provided

Thanks: 50
Thanked 880 Times in 786 Posts
Default

I'd also like to see a few competitors: the smartphone market is rapidly turning into the PC market of the 90s with Android playing the Windows role.

That's not good for anyone .. 'cept maybe Google.

In theory, there's no reason why the smartphone market can't have more players: it did (although Symbian was probably dominant) until iOS came along and killed the competition.

Unfortunately, when people don't really understand what they're buying, they quite naturally buy whatever's most popular on the they-can't-all-be-wrong principle. It does actually make some sense.

It's also not new: back in the dark ages when I started in IT, everybody bought IBM (the world's biggest plumbing company*) because "nobody ever got sacked for buying IBM". This idea was so strong, IBM got away murder - like telling companies that the fact their mainframes were 2 or 3 years behind the competition was an advantage because the technology was 'proven'.

So basically, I would love to see BB get back up to 15-20% of the market. I would also like something else - maybe WP8, though I'd prefer something not north American (that's a different sort of monopoly) - take a similar sized chunk. I just don't see it happening.



* technically true as their mainframes were water cooled. Probably still are - they're just not so popular as they once were
SiempreTuna is offline  
Last edited by SiempreTuna; January 31st, 2013 at 03:50 AM.
Reply With Quote
Old January 31st, 2013, 08:40 AM   #3 (permalink)
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 15
 
Device(s): HTC Explorer
Carrier: Vodaphone

Thanks: 1
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default

It is good to see healthy competition between all four mobile phone OS giants. I am sure there are still many die hard fans of blackberry phones. With the introduction of new Balckberry models Z10 and Q10 , Blackberry may revive some of its market share.
AndroJar is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old January 31st, 2013, 10:44 AM   #4 (permalink)
AF Addict
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 10,023
 
Device(s):
Carrier: Not Provided

Thanks: 1,765
Thanked 2,010 Times in 1,555 Posts
Default

the current big 2 are very very powerful.
apple is slipping to number 2.. and will fight dirty to keep from dropping out of 2nd.

so.. my guess..
1st will have 55%ish
2nd will have 25%ish
Their ecosystem is what will keep them at top. way hard for the other to catch up.


then i would think there is room for a 3rd at around 15%
there to bite at the heals of top 2. just keeping up.

the 4th.. is just at 5% ish.. and would always be in and out..
or just enough to keep the lights on.
may change.. new comers.. tryin

well that is what i think for at least the next 10 yrs. who knows after that.
this industry moves so fast.
__________________
Later,
Dan

DropBox: register for free space (we both get 500MB extra space): http://db.tt/sWYVl3j6
dan330 is offline  
Last edited by dan330; January 31st, 2013 at 10:46 AM.
Reply With Quote
Old January 31st, 2013, 03:53 PM   #5 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
Stuntman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 3,271
 
Device(s): Samsung Galaxy S3, HTC Desire Z, Asus Eee Pad Transformer with Keyboard Dock, Nokia N97
Carrier: Bell

Thanks: 227
Thanked 647 Times in 513 Posts
Default

The market is always changing. Five years ago, I never thought BB would be in so much trouble now and that the iPhone would become so dominant. Who knows what will happen in 5 years time? It will be exciting to see, though.
__________________
<\
\>tuntman
Stuntman is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old January 31st, 2013, 06:17 PM   #6 (permalink)
Disabled
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,033
 
Device(s):
Carrier: Sprint

Thanks: 541
Thanked 556 Times in 440 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SiempreTuna View Post
I'd also like to see a few competitors: the smartphone market is rapidly turning into the PC market of the 90s with Android playing the Windows role.
Back in the early days of what was then called the "microcomputer", one of the factors that thinned the herd was the limited shelf space for boxes of software. (Back then there was no Internet delivery.) The record industry went through a similar crisis when the LP, EP, 7-inch single, Compact Cassette and 8-track tape formats competed for shelf space. The LP and (to a lesser extent) Compact Cassette won until the Compact Disc started the competition for shelf space anew.

These days we aren't constrained by shelf space, but do have software developers, often single individuals, who cannot or will not give equal consideration to every smart phone platform. As usual, the root of the problem lies in needlessly proprietary application execution environments.

As long as the major players aim for total monopoly, and refuse to agree on universal standards, we will continue to see one or two profitable players, and the rest going bankrupt.

Hardware virtualization has been confined mostly to mainframe computing (where it's a powerful tool) and data centers (where it's of dubious usefulness). But recent rumblings of a smart phone platform that can accommodate two or more virtual phones in order to keep work and personal calls and data use separate might bring virtualization into the mainstream. If this becomes popular, it may one day be possible for the phone hobbyist to have several major phone environments on the same device. But that's a big "if"!
Speed Daemon is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old January 31st, 2013, 07:50 PM   #7 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,088
 
Device(s):
Carrier: Not Provided

Thanks: 15
Thanked 162 Times in 142 Posts
Default

I really don't want to see 90% of androids market shares. It's monopolizing the market, and as proven that monopoly is bad.
unnamedny is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old February 1st, 2013, 06:21 AM   #8 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,634
 
Device(s):
Carrier: Not Provided

Thanks: 50
Thanked 880 Times in 786 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Speed Daemon View Post
But recent rumblings of a smart phone platform that can accommodate two or more virtual phones in order to keep work and personal calls and data use separate might bring virtualization into the mainstream
A phone VM?! Wow! I guess I never thought of that ..

I can see it's technically viable - most phones use ARM processors - but I'm struggling to see where the market for it would be, outside of the sort of keen techies you get on a forum like this. Who are few and far between.

Interesting idea, though.

Re standards, I'm afraid Apple has turned the clock back there: people now see walled gardens as way more profitable - Google, MS and BB are busily building their own walls.

Maybe this is another parallel with the early days of computing and as the market saturation increases, companies will start to see the benefit of lowering the cost of migration to their technology.
SiempreTuna is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old February 4th, 2013, 06:14 AM   #9 (permalink)
New Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 5
 
Device(s):
Carrier: Not Provided

Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default

I am all for android! There is no place for closed source OSes in my head.
davoid likes this.
eventhorizont is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old February 4th, 2013, 08:01 AM   #10 (permalink)
Dr. Feelgood
 
Rxpert83's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: MN
Gender: Male
Posts: 17,367
 
Device(s): Nexus 7, Nexus 5
Carrier: Sprint

Thanks: 14,851
Thanked 12,624 Times in 7,284 Posts
Default Re: Can the smartphone market support four healthy operating systems?

Android isn't going anywhere anytime soon and is pretty secure in the #1 spot for the time being.

Apple is slipping, with techies hating that apple is fighting its battles in the courts rather than being innovative. The general population is even starting to come around. I know a lot of people who had nothing but iphones in the past buy the s3 because they were unimpressed with nothing but a taller screen.

I want to see 3_4 players in the game. Competition only helps consumers.
Rxpert83 is online now  
Reply With Quote
sponsored links
Reply


Go Back   Android Forums > Android Forums Community > The Lounge
Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:09 PM.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.