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Old March 8th, 2014, 02:18 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Malaysia Airlines tragedies

Interesting/scary stuff:
Malaysia Air Flight: Stolen European Passports On Plane

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Old March 8th, 2014, 02:28 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Default Malaysia Airlines tragedy

As many of you know, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 appears to be lost in the South China sea without word of any of the 239 souls on board.

My heart goes out to all family and friends affected.

The news reports were sketchy all night.

The flight was believed lost at less than an hour into the flight, perhaps better than halfway between the Malaysian peninsula and the southern tip of Vietnam in the South China Sea, adjacent to the Gulf of Thailand.

Wild speculation has raged over how you lose an airplane off radar - but that's easy when you know that radar coverage is very spotty for that part of the world, especially for southern Vietnam. Not a value judgement, just what it is.

Others are speculating over the timeline. The known ground track shows the plane's position at 18 minutes into the flight, and the last check-in was at double that distance.

Despite reports of being lost an hour or two into the flight, those times would have put them firmly into Vietnamese airspace and it's clear they never made it that far.

The last reports were of an oil slick and a multinational search and rescue effort.

Hopefully, survivors will be found.
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Old March 8th, 2014, 02:42 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Let's hope there's survivors from this. I can't even begin to understand how their families must feel
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Old March 8th, 2014, 02:44 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I've heard such WILDLY disparate info on this, it's hard to know what's correct.

Let's hope for the families and friends of those involved that the plane is found soon. It's hard to imagine the worry and grief they're experiencing right now.
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Old March 8th, 2014, 02:44 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I've been following this all morning, and certainly my heart goes out. So many unanswered questions, and so many folks jumping to conclusions.
I wish all the best and hope for survivors.
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Old March 8th, 2014, 02:48 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by breadnatty08 View Post
I've been following this all morning, and certainly my heart goes out. So many unanswered questions, and so many folks jumping to conclusions.
I wish all the best and hope for survivors.
I really don't think I could have worded it better myself. My thoughts and prayers are with everyone.
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Old March 8th, 2014, 03:26 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MoodyBlues View Post
I've heard such WILDLY disparate info on this, it's hard to know what's correct.

Let's hope for the families and friends of those involved that the plane is found soon. It's hard to imagine the worry and grief they're experiencing right now.
I worked in air vehicle operational test for the Air Force and have Asian ties. My brother works on Naval aircraft maintenance.

We were online for hours together throughout the night, separating fact from fiction and following the direct reports from Vietnam courtesy of the Aviation Herald.

I'm away from my desk, will link sources later when I'm back, but hopefully I won't have to and we'll hear something more concrete soon.
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Old March 8th, 2014, 05:00 PM   #8 (permalink)
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^^ First 18 minutes of flight ground track.

Flight time and track calculator: Flight Time from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia to Beijing, China

For the scheduled flight time to Beijing, expect an average of around 470 to 480 knots.

Actual flight path was not a straight line.

Flight took off at 16:21 GMT, missed scheduled check-in at 17:22 GMT.

malaysia_b772_9m-mro_gulf_of_thailand_140308_sat_1800.jpg

Map locating Thổ Châu island, mentioned in reports putting it at 90 to 150 miles of that -

Google Maps Link

Crash: Malaysia B772 over Gulf of Thailand on Mar 8th 2014, aircraft missing
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Old March 8th, 2014, 05:47 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Old March 8th, 2014, 09:36 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by breadnatty08 View Post
I've been following this all morning, and certainly my heart goes out. So many unanswered questions, and so many folks jumping to conclusions.
I wish all the best and hope for survivors.

Likewise! What is suspicious is that there are two people on that flight using stolen passports. The owners reported them stolen in Thailand long ago. There are too many insane / violent people thinking their cause justifies anything they do, even to innocent people.
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Old March 8th, 2014, 10:10 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Stolen Passports. sigh.
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Old March 8th, 2014, 10:34 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Stolen passports are commonly used there for smuggling.

I'd expect any terrorist group to have spoken up by now, yeah?
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Old March 8th, 2014, 11:13 PM   #13 (permalink)
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No. Give them time. This so stinks.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 12:02 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Stolen passports are commonly used there for smuggling.

I'd expect any terrorist group to have spoken up by now, yeah?
They briefly interviewed an US Gov't Antiterrorist rep on the news yesterday morning and he basically said they really have no leads on terrorist groups in that area, so little to no reason to suspect that.
I'd say it could be either smuggling or folks trying to flee who don't have passports.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 07:07 AM   #15 (permalink)
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I still think that a bolide, or even something smaller, is more likely.

https://b612foundation.org/education/data-visualization-bolides/
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Old March 9th, 2014, 09:29 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Still no more concrete info on this?! Something very strange about this. I fear it may have crashed.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 09:52 AM   #17 (permalink)
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First; it's a VERY tragic situation and my sympathies to out to all of the people on the plane and their relatives.

But there are very few reasons for a plane just disappearing from radar. The most likely is a fairly large explosion. Granted, coverage in that part of the world is sparse but if I had to bet, it was a large explosion.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 10:06 AM   #18 (permalink)
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any news yet?

guessing it crashed in the ocean
that is why it is so hard to find

passport might have been .. someone trying to travel .. to get out of that country.
may not be part of the reason it went down
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Old March 9th, 2014, 10:53 AM   #19 (permalink)
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The press introduced the idea, "disappeared from radar."

Disappearing from radar over Omaha is not the same thing as this situation. We have radar over Omaha.

These are countries with national pride under a global microscope lacking full radar coverage.

Vietnam's latest official statement is based on Malaysia's - the plane was lost one minute before entering Vietnam's airspace. According to the press.

If the USA said that, it would be because of tracking radar.

What Vietnam was more likely trying to say is that, even if was by only a minute, it hadn't passed in to our air control network yet.

Well over a day ago, China said that they tracked it changing course from 24° to 333° while rapidly descending. That has been discounted because normal takeoff from the Kuala Lampur airport from the runway this plane used is 333° turning to 24° and because a commercial radar service - the one that later claimed having it on track - couldn't confirm that. Following that, China got quiet about the radar. They're not going to speak further if they made that big a screw up and they're not going to speak further to argue and thereby divulge anything more about their military radar.

Normal tracking is done with a transponder. Any number of reasons for losing that, including screw ups on the ground side. A transponder is a thing in the airplane saying, "I'm over here!" Radar is a thing on the surface saying, "It's over there." Big difference.

Malaysia didn't publicly report for hours and initially, had the last known time of contact off by an hour. The press is now saying that that's because people got confused converting Thailand time to GMT. Note that Malaysia isn't Thailand. And that initial Malaysian report had China and Vietnam looking on their grounds at first. For hours.

The position of the oil slicks seen by Vietnam's air search would not be inconsistent with China's radar report.

All we really know is that Malaysia lost track of the aircraft while it was under their air control, that it didn't hand off to Vietnam's air control, that Malaysia didn't report it publicly in a timely manner, that all early reports made were by countries looking for the aircraft in their air control corridors, and the reports on radar tracking are either confused or confusing.

"Not seen on radar since..." does not mean, "lost off of radar" in all parts of the world, especially there, but the Western press simply doesn't understand that.

PS - the press also doesn't understand the difference between "air space" and "air control," "air control corridors," or "air control network" - and they're very different. Good to remember that when trying to sort out news stories.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 11:19 AM   #20 (permalink)
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I'm paying particularly close attention to this, because I flew with Malaysia Airlines last year, Kuala Lumpur to Hong Kong. Which takes a similar route to the Beijing flight, going over Vietnam.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 11:24 AM   #21 (permalink)
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I'm paying particularly close attention to this, because I flew with Malaysia Airlines last year, Kuala Lumpur to Hong Kong. Which takes a similar route to the Beijing flight, going over Vietnam.
I've flown them often too, always thought that they did a great job.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 11:53 AM   #22 (permalink)
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This "report" just hit and is so sensationalistic that I can't take it seriously -

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/09/us-exclusive-probe-plane-idUSBREA280FF20140309

"Search teams have not been able to make any confirmed discovery of wreckage in seas beneath the plane's flight path almost 48 hours after it took off."

And they're not going to. Even if it was on track going down, which is more than doubtful, the ocean surface is not stationary.

The report is sensationalizing comparisons to terrorist mid-air detonations.

"... said the source, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the investigation."

I hope that they find and fire them. The idiot reporter probably has a gold star on his forehead.

True or false isn't the point.

The point is that speculative reports already built on one another until no one could tell who said what, followed by some control being imposed, reports unwound, and retractions issued.

We don't need some mouth looking for the scoop to start it up again.


Good news - the Chicago Tribune swallowed it hook, line and sinker and is repeating it with unfounded (and probably made-up) exaggerations.

Wtg, Chicago Tribune, you suck.

And now the media feeding frenzy is on.

"Reuters" said it, so it must be true according the press jackasses.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 12:16 PM   #23 (permalink)
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http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/09/malaysia-airlines-loses-contact-with-plane-carrying-23-people/

1. Nobody checked passports with Interpol. They have photos of the fakers.

2. Possible debris sighted by the Vietnamese 53 miles south of Tho Chu.

3. "Malaysia's air force chief" was reported to have said that military radar showed the plane turning back before being lost.

Point 3 has been repeated and retracted often, each repeating with a new vague identity of who said it. Last one was The Guardian reporting: "Malaysia's air force chief Rodzali Daud told a press conference that it appeared to have gone off-route. "We are trying to make sense of this … The military radar indicated that the aircraft may have made a turn back and in some parts, this was corroborated by civilian radar," he said." But not saying when that press conference took place or if they were there themselves - or repeating a false quotation.

Sentence structure implies that the radar was Malaysian military.

It wasn't - it was the Chinese as I mentioned earlier.

Point 2 is credible but unconfirmed. It's dark there now, no new credible reports to expect for some hours.

If you're interested in passports here, that's what's properly reported.


~~~~~

Malaysia reported oil slicks south of where Vietnam sighted them. No confirmation if aviation grade.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 02:10 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Here's the picture of the oil slicks found by the Vietnamese Air Force, courtesy of The Guardian in the UK -



You have to be an expert to know that's what an oil slick looks like.

Finding things in or on the ocean is very difficult ok.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 02:45 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Meanwhile, Thailand's navy is shifting its focus in the search away from the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea, Thai Navy Rear Adm. Karn Dee-ubon told CNN on Sunday. The shift came at the request of the Malaysians, who are looking into possibilities the plane turned around and could have gone down in the Andaman Sea, near Thailand's border, Karn said.

The Andaman Sea lies to the west of a narrow strip of Thailand that ends in the Malaysian peninsula, while the Gulf of Thailand lies to the east of that Thai isthmus.

New leads explored in hunt for missing Malaysia Airlines flight - CNN.com
For that to be possible, they would have had to have flown for at least 40 minutes due west of their last reported radar position, crossing land, without anyone noticing and without any contact from the plane. If extending down to the Malacca Straight at WSW, that would be at least 35 minutes flight time.

If true, then obviously the plane didn't suddenly disappear from radar while exploding at 35,000 feet over the South China Sea - as claimed by that unnamed expert source.

And that shows exactly how absolutely confused the entire situation is.

And why to never trust unknown expert sources.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 03:24 PM   #26 (permalink)
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I was hoping that it was a highjacking situation... but something would have surfaced by now...

I believe it's also true with a terrorist attack in that ...someone would have claimed responsibility by now...

that whole... the sky is falling thing... freaked me out EM! I'm on a plane in a week...and again 2 weeks after that...and I already don't like it on take off landing...when I can't see the horizon...now I have to worry about meteorites?

how often does that happen?????
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Old March 9th, 2014, 04:08 PM   #27 (permalink)
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I was hoping that it was a highjacking situation... but something would have surfaced by now...

I believe it's also true with a terrorist attack in that ...someone would have claimed responsibility by now...

that whole... the sky is falling thing... freaked me out EM! I'm on a plane in a week...and again 2 weeks after that...and I already don't like it on take off landing...when I can't see the horizon...now I have to worry about meteorites?

how often does that happen?????
If it happened here, that would be the first recorded incident in flight history.

I've seen a small one fly by - once - and I've flown well over a quarter million miles, basically, I've stopped counting.

My point was that that seemed more likely than a hijacking.

Don't worry about it. If a meteorite is going to hit your airplane, it's even more likely to hit your house or while you're taking a walk.

The sky is everywhere and it only falls a little.

Don't worry about it.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 05:06 PM   #28 (permalink)
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i guess I always did want to go out in a ball of flames...so I guess it would be kind of an awesome way to go,,,
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Old March 9th, 2014, 06:20 PM   #29 (permalink)
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This has got to be so difficult for the families of the crew and passengers. Not knowing what happened, but knowing that realistically the plane crashed or exploded and that their loved ones are no longer with us. My prayers go out to them in this time.

To the poster who said that they're a week out from a flight, it seems like every time I fly somewhere, I read about plane incidents in the days leading up or right after. That plane that made a 'hard landing' at LaGuardia occured on the same day that I landed at JFK. I flew out to the Philippines shortly after the miracle on the Hudson made me scared of flying over water.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 08:06 PM   #30 (permalink)
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They found some floating debris in the sea.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 08:31 PM   #31 (permalink)
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They found some floating debris in the sea.
Yep.

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2. Possible debris sighted by the Vietnamese 53 miles south of Tho Chu.

...

Point 2 is credible but unconfirmed. It's dark there now, no new credible reports to expect for some hours.
It's about 8:30 AM there now, so they have daylight to check the area they found, as planned.

Fox's latest just repeated an earlier report that a door was found. That's been discounted and they're going by a better sighting after that one.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 08:32 PM   #32 (permalink)
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Nahh this was a explosion . its no parts . unknown if this was a terrorist act but I am a firemen seen many planes on fire or fallen out of the sky from stalling engines . just think the plane is made up of many parts. Some parts are just made to float some are not . in every plane LIFE JACKETS are always present . now just think it blew up and plane parts would float . now if you don't see anything you will see some life jackets or floating oxygen masks, or even luggage sometimes cork also floats . but now this leaves me puzzled cause there wasn't nothing yet . so a explosion comes to mind . but still nothing floating
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Old March 9th, 2014, 08:37 PM   #33 (permalink)
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They need submarine to search and ping for blackbox so divers can retrieve it if they can
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Old March 9th, 2014, 08:47 PM   #34 (permalink)
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Submarines can't ping for things on the ocean floor.

The data recorders send out a transponder signal. That takes time to locate, especially when you don't know where to look first.

The search area is beyond very large. The wreckage may be scattered or concentrated, it's too early to say that it's not being found.

Everything started late thanks to how Malaysia handled things at the beginning.

It's impossible to predict what would be floating. What *could* be floating is easy, what would be, nope.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 08:54 PM   #35 (permalink)
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Submarines can't ping for things on the ocean floor.

The data recorders send out a transponder signal. That takes time to locate, especially when you don't know where to look first.

The search area is beyond very large. The wreckage may be scattered or concentrated, it's too early to say that it's not being found.

Everything started late thanks to how Malaysia handled things at the beginning.

It's impossible to predict what would be floating. What *could* be floating is easy, what would be, nope.
Yeah, wanna see that in action? Go watch this (which is honestly more comedic value than anything but Early's first point in the quoted post is actually demonstrated)
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Old March 9th, 2014, 09:03 PM   #36 (permalink)
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Lol, I actually watched that a few days ago.

Sidescan sonar exists and is used for searching the ocean floor by researchers. Going to that right now would be like looking for a needle in 1,000 haystacks. No telling about the future.

I don't think that they'd ever stop until the data recorders are found.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 09:35 PM   #37 (permalink)
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More parts just found


http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-10/mysteries-of-deep-often-yield-when-jets-crash-over-water.html
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Old March 9th, 2014, 10:10 PM   #38 (permalink)
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The sensational picture doesn't match the text.

They're referring to the same debris spotted last night.

Sorry, nothing new there.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 10:19 PM   #39 (permalink)
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Any mention of how deep the water is in this area? If it's too deep, they may never recover the black boxes.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 10:23 PM   #40 (permalink)
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Any mention of how deep the water is in this area? If it's too deep, they may never recover the black boxes.
Gulf of Thailand is only 45 to 85 meters deep, so if it deviated to the west, chances would be good.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 11:27 PM   #41 (permalink)
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Any mention of how deep the water is in this area? If it's too deep, they may never recover the black boxes.
I believe it took them two years to find the Air France flight recorders, that was mid-Atlantic from a depth of something like 2 miles. That flight just disappeared as well, no Mayday call or anything.
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Old March 9th, 2014, 11:57 PM   #42 (permalink)
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I believe it took them two years to find the Air France flight recorders, that was mid-Atlantic from a depth of something like 2 miles. That flight just disappeared as well, no Mayday call or anything.
Yep.

That was human error - tragic.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/aviation/crashes/what-really-happened-aboard-air-france-447-6611877
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Old March 10th, 2014, 12:23 AM   #43 (permalink)
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From http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304704504579429601988903972?mg=ren o64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB 10001424052702304704504579429601988903972.html

The Chinese originally searched their southern land, today Malaysia asked Thailand to search the Andaman Sea.

The maps really show how much uncertainty that is - those areas are about a thousand miles apart.
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Old March 10th, 2014, 12:36 AM   #44 (permalink)
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Wow..... Could those pilots have had their heads shoved any further up their own asses then they already were?
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Old March 10th, 2014, 01:03 AM   #45 (permalink)
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Wow..... Could those pilots have had their heads shoved any further up their own asses then they already were?
Sadly amazing wasn't it.
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Old March 10th, 2014, 07:07 AM   #46 (permalink)
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The latest reports are that the "liferaft" spotted earlier was in fact unrelated debris. Other reports of possible wreckage have remained unconfirmed. Samples of the oil slick are being tested to determine whether it contains jet fuel.
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Old March 10th, 2014, 08:06 AM   #47 (permalink)
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The latest reports are that the "liferaft" spotted earlier was in fact unrelated debris. Other reports of possible wreckage have remained unconfirmed. Samples of the oil slick are being tested to determine whether it contains jet fuel.
Tests show it's bunker oil, used in ships and not aircraft.

Reports of the tail being found were confirmed false, that was logs tied together.

The door (that kept cropping up in reports) turned into a liferaft in the press before being ruled out.

The Washington Post is still reporting that the liferaft was a life jacket, "according to officials" and the door was reported by "Vietnamese officials."

No officials have said either of those things, the press invented that. All we had was one photo.

The door / liferaft / life jacket reported were all the same piece of unrelated junk.

"I applaud The Washington Post for being able to spell airplane," said EarlyMon to unknown officials in an unconfirmed report.

Quotes and pictures -

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/10/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-knowns-unknowns/

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/10/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10687223/Malaysia-Airlines-live-Search-for-missing-jet-is-widened.html

The 8 emergency slides on a 777 become liferafts, each is equipped with an emergency location transmitter.

They don't have a good history.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/19/asiana-evacuation-slides_n_3951154.html
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Old March 10th, 2014, 10:03 AM   #48 (permalink)
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"I applaud The Washington Post for being able to spell airplane," said EarlyMon to unknown officials in an unconfirmed report.
I started my Monday morning with a good laugh thanks to that.... Probably to the annoyance of my coworkers.

It's amazing the lies and garbage that spew in the media. Both the 'reporters' and the 'officials' should lose their jobs.
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Old March 10th, 2014, 10:34 AM   #49 (permalink)
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-10/plane-debris-hunters-seek-suspected-aircraft-window-part.html

If true, the search is extending to Hong Kong - that's in opposite direction, from NNE to East of where they were searching, and much further out.

I don't know what's next - the Gulf of Tonkin? Borneo?
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Old March 10th, 2014, 01:46 PM   #50 (permalink)
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I don't know what's next - the Gulf of Tonkin? Borneo?
I'm surprised nobody has suggested The Bermuda Triangle. That seems as likely as any other theory right now. I get the distinct opinion that people are simply closing their eyes, jabbing a pin in a map, and making wild guesses.
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