Discussion in 'The Lounge' started by mape245, Sep 2, 2012.
Apple will be surpassed as well as Android eventually. Just a matter of time....
Or perhaps not.
I learned long ago not to assume anything about technology. Things change and empires fall. New empires rise from the ashes and one day, we might be fondly remembering Android as the little engine that almost could and almost did.
Apple could falter or Apple could earn a trillion dollars in profit. iOS 6 could be the ultimate phone OS or ex-Google developers could create something that replaces Android. Or Android becomes THE predominant OS.
Or iOS could be released to other manufacturers or Apple could make a series of silly errors and all but disappear. Well, perhaps that last one is stretching things a bit; Apple will be around for decades to come.
It is a mistake to assume Android will always be with us and start thinking that it is the final solution. I think many here think Android is forever but fail to understand that that is not certain by any means. Perhaps Android is forever; then again, perhaps not.
Nothing guarantees Android will be with us in ten or twenty years. It likely will, but that is just an assumption. As soon as another OS arrives, perhaps manufacturers will start using that one.
My personal "unsupported by any documentation but based on the historical evidence" theory is that right now, there is a new OS in development and it just might be better than Android and/or iOS. Two guys in a garage are busy as we e-speak developing their new software.
I know this because there have always been two guys in a garage, somewhere, developing something new.
One never really knows what will happen.
If you want to assume something, try this: eventually, something will try to make a place along side iOS, Windows Phone, Android and Blackberry and one of those will become the leader of the pack, only to be replaced by two future guys in a garage that release something cool.
And Apple will sue them all. They are already preparing to sue themselves for creating devices that look like their devices. Apple claims that Apple is copying Apple's designs and they want Apple to pay.
Next target is Santa. He brings us iDevices and he is not licensed.
Above is the story on Gateways downfall, since it's been mentioned as an example of what can happen to a large/dominant tech player. While any company can suffer from poor management I don't think Apple will have that problem any time soon. Sure a guy like Steve Job's is a real rarity but that doesn't mean there aren't capable people behind him. While he may have had the personality that drove the company along with his innovative ideas and solid marketing skills, he also know his time was short. I'm sure that by the time he died the people he wanted to run and control his legacy were well in place.
Smartphones/tablets are rapidly becoming a commodity item, the big profit margins will slowly fall and there will always be a few major players competing in the market. The platforms will continue to be iOS, Android, and a little bit of WinMo. As these devices continue towards commoditization their innovation will slow (but not stop) and a handful of manufacturers will own the space (Apple, Samsung, LG, Motorola). Think of the PC races in the '90's, and how the big players consolidated and now there is very little difference between their products.
I get what your trying to say, but your post is kinda all over the place.
I think the most objective outlook in regards to OS longevity is ecosystem. Android has a massive ecosystem, same with iOS, and windows. If either of which are to be replaced by something foreign, that new platform should at least attempt to offer a decent ecosystem off the bat. If not, they will get nowhere. At this day and age that's what it truly breaks down to.
Let's take bb10 for instance. Supposedly, its suppose to offer a new experience to the current paradigm of what's popular (the grid of icons experience), and bring new software innovations to the table through means of qnx. Similar to what Microsoft has attempted to do with wp. However, being that the OS is being built from the ground up, the ecosystem that will be available at launch will basically be non existant. Judging by RIM's track record, its also likely a while for developers to take them seriously. Whats more pressing is that unfortunately for RIM bb10 may be their last hope at surviving.
What this to me means is if your company is not already huge with resources to throw into this type of thing (like windows or amazon), then developing a platform from the ground up is not quite as simple as "two guys in a garage" with a cool idea (while I obviously understand that's a metaphor, still). It takes massive funding and developer support along with a good idea. Even with that though, years and years before an OS can really blossom. We are basically only seeing android truly blossom now after 4 years of being available in the wild with ics/jb.
With also interesting to note is how the average consumer sees ios/android as the best mobile choices mainly because of their similarities. Like I mentioned earlier millions of consumers long for the "grid of icons" experience, and this is all very new to them still. So I see the mobile market changing until possibly the end of this current decade, which is when the general consensus will probably be boredom.
So while I agree with you to a certain extent, I don't believe the pattern of consumers mobile buying habits will change until the average consumer is either truly bored with what's available (cause they are not), or a strong 3rd platform fully blooms.
Right now this is where Apple is winning (and also about to screw up, too). Their ecosystem extends well beyond a wide range of access to books, music, and video. Everyone's doing that these days it seems, but Apple has added easier printing (Airprint) and screen sharing (Airplay). Additionally their ability to stream image and music content between devices is much simpler with Bonjour than it is with DLNA. I think Samsung has started doing something similar to Airplay but it's not widespread yet and I believe requires having their phone/tablets connecting to one of their upper end TV sets to function.
The availability of accessories using Apple's proprietary dock connector is huge; alarm clocks, home theater systems, and even auto manufacturers have adopted it and included it in their vehicles. Today I can go to Best Buy, Radio Shack, or Fry's and buy an alarm clock or speaker system with that adapter and I know any iPod, iPhone, or iTouch can connect to it quite simply while holding the smart-device upright in an easy to use position. While Android tablets and phones all use the standard USB port and audio jacks they are invariably in different spots and so there is not a simple universal dock mechanism for use across Android devices that doesn't include a dangling and unsightly cable somewhere on it.
Both Google and Amazon have their ecosystems built around content delivery but they still lack the broader ecosystem which Apple has been able to tightly integrate with their products. This is where Google/Amazon need to put some serious effort into development and standardization, it's hurting them against Apple right now because it's a big gap that's unfilled. That said, Apple may also end up losing in the Enterprise if they can't do something about Bonjours inability to work in a decent manner on large scale networks. Aerohive, Cisco, and Aruba all have products in the pipeline to work around Bonjours inefficient use of multicast but they are all just work-arounds and none of them appear to be all that graceful about it. With Apple supposedly changing their connector to a different form-factor with the iPhone 5 their customers lose out on a very substantial array of products that support their platform. If not addressed soon these screw-ups by Apple leave an opportunity for Google to step in. And I hope they do, I much prefer my Android devices (DroidX, Acer 10" Tablet) over my wife's iPad and the iPhone 4 provided by my employer.
Like when a cranial implant is developed the does all the work of a smartphone without the phone. As for the SD card, can
I don't want integration. I prefer not to put all my eggs in one basket, simply out of cussedness. I use Ubuntu, Windows, Android. I don't use any of the same apps on any of the OS. Exception is Startpage and Duck duck go which you can get to in any browser. It's more work,since if I wish to use Yahoo mail I must use the browser, and change the browser to standard mode, but it adds to the satisfaction.
I buy from Amazon - but no ebooks, won't use App store. If I want ebooks, there are independents. I'm waiting to see what happens in the price fixing suit. The suit was brought against Apple and publishers, and they might lose - so we'll see how prices go.
Ebook price-fixing: judge approves settlement with publishers | Books | guardian.co.uk
Apple might try for a monopoly here - they won't get it. Certain niche markets won't go along. Voice only (minority) but still use cell. Diehard MS fans. Diehard gamers.
I don't think Apple will get a monopoly in the Orient. I should think the Asian gov'ts would somehow stick up for their own industries.
HTC patents in Apple suit likely valid: US judge - Taipei Times
Considering that they were kept in business back in the 90s by Microsoft having to release Office for Mac just to avoid a monopoly situation, I doubt if Apple wants to paint themselves into the same corner.
Well Apple took it with the whole new idea what mobile phone should be. And i think there will be a better idea and tech. Google experimenting with glasses which i think will never make it to the market. Perhaps it's going to be something that will truly replace physical or handheld devices or not.. who knows. When we watch some sci-fi movies we see amazing and cool technology and 10 years later we laugh at it because turns out we've got much better devices. My point is that no matter how hard you try to dream and think about future technology it's going to be not the way you have expected it to be but better.
From what I understand, android is linux, open source! Microsoft has been and continues to screw with linux because it's free, stable, safe (For the moment) and cutting into their profits. Linux is public property and domain.
I could see apple going after android for profit reasons....
So be it, mayne Ubuntu will be the next big player in the mobile market!
The day they make linux non public domain? Well, let's just put it this way, there will be hell to pay...
And no, I'm not a robot whom reads books about corporate giants especially about apple microsoft. I couldn't give 2 s$its! I just want my equipment to function, and linux has always come though!
Ubuntu is split between Gnome and Unity. Quite a few people don't like the Unity desktop. Now the new controversy will be the Amazon search engine included in 12.10.
What do you think about Amazon search results being automatically in Dash searches on Ubuntu 12.10? | ITworld
Apple also started with Open source. They just forked off on their own which is legal but against the spirit of open source.
I wouldn't mind Linux on a tablet or phone. Android is a fork, too. So is/was Symbian.
I just see an OS as a medium to run the apps I want, my way. Android let me do that.
I wonder whether this will influence the pricing of Samsung devices in the future as they attempt to recuperate the cost of the lawsuit.
Bit of a naive and silly thing to say, Apple spend a lot on R&D, the things they bring to the table, especially in nano development field benefit everyone.
Sorry for the double post, posted a while after and didn't realise I was still the last poster.
It isn't all going Apple's way:
Apple v. Samsung judge ends Galaxy Tab ban, Apple may have to pay $2.6M | Ars Technica
A little correction:
Apple never offered any FOSS products. They did pretend to support the Linux community by developing mkLinux, which was Linux with an unnecessary microkernel stuck onto it. We in the Linux community didn't know it at the time, but Apple was using the good faith work of Linux developers around the world to further the development of their closed and proprietary next-generation OS. In the end, Apple OSX used code from the various "baby BSD" projects (FreeBSD, OpenBSD etc.) to make Darwin. And the glue code that they needed to make the *BSD code work with Mach 4 came directly from mkLinux.
Linux people like myself have some valid reasons to mistrust Apple. Apple did violate the GPL by not publishing the code that's encumbered by the GPL. And the last time I checked, Darwin is no longer available for stand-alone use. Doubleplusungood.
Apple wants to move Macs away from Intel chips - report
If Apple does - that would mean bye-bye MS Office, too wouldn't it? Or will Apple users be allowed to "subscribe" in the cloud? Open and Libre will serve, but a lot of people don't trust them to work right since they're "free".
The Vulcan actually made that statement about Ubuntu. It couldn't be any good since it was free. He's a freaking engineer who has done some programming!
I doubt that will happen.Microsoft keeps screwing with the linux community unsuccessfully. Android is open source as well as linux that has a decent following.
Heard of occupy movements? The same could happen with this scenario. Apple and Microsoft is threatened by linux.
Linux is public domain and open source, community based.
Big business is out of control. At some point, the PUBLIC will step in, and it will be bloody war. It's coming, common sense HOPEFULLY says so!
Companies like apple and Microsoft are for profit, linux (In general) isn't.
No sociopathic company wants their profits cut into...
Is not the world revolved around money?
I wouldn't worry about it. There's too many freedom fighters out there and OPEN SOURCE software. Hell, they're even getting ubuntu linux to run on a smartphone!
Perhaps they are, but that does not mean it will go anywhere in the market. I applaud the effort, but no way I would purchase a Ubuntu phone. Not saying it is good . . not saying it is bad . . . just saying it is one more OS to deal with in the marketplace.
All I do know is from free to 700.00 or more, there is a phone, company, market and OS for everyone. Every year, the costs drop and quality goes up, and that be good enough for me.
And that is very acceptable for those who just want a device that works out of the box and doesn't question things (Things that make carriers and phone makers love).
I want total control (Till I walk away from this tech crap).
My phone should be no different from a home computer. To load what "I" choose.
There should be an option for those of us whom know a little and THINK.
It's fine that you want a stock sports car. There's those of us who want to trick our rides without restrictions! Moans...
But most users want it to run out of the box and they do not care about operating systems or rooting or jailbreaking. They want a cheap phone, access to the usual crap, a market to DL stuff, etc.
I apologize if I sounded condescending ...
You are right, 100%
I just have a problem with a vast majority off society whom eats of the spoon of corporate B.S.
I agree, people are entitled to like what they like! All I'm asking is for people to dig a little into what they're buying into rather than just saying "Hey! O.K.! I trust you with my life!" kinda thing.
Far from it as there are allot of options available for smartphones and tablets, so nothing to worry about.
They are in a situation however that means they can sell almost anything based on their brand.
Apparently, Android tablets are up to almost 50% of marketshare when compared to the iPad:
Android tablets match the iPad in market share - Tampa Bay Web 2.0 | Examiner.com