Will Android ever succeed?


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  1. river

    river Member This Topic's Starter

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    I expected a big splash from Android/G1. Using Google trends to track G1/GooglePhone/Android/GPhone and iPhone reveals that the G1 and Android are getting virtually no traction out in the real world, where companies make money, while iPhone explodes and Blackberry is not far behind. I decided to develop for Android rather than iPhone becuase it's open and not proprietary.

    But it's looking like Android is not going to be a lucrative place to be, the way the market is reacting to the G1 and Android.

    I'm thinking about switching to iPhone. Am I wrong? Anybody know some hard facts/numbers, or solid, verifiable information about future trends, developments, events, etc. that bear on this?

    Thanks. Hope I'm wrong.
     

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  2. greekking23

    greekking23 Well-Known Member

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    I, too, have been wondering about this very much. Anyone with positive comments?
     
  3. justjimjpc

    justjimjpc Premium Member VIP Member

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    No positive comments .... Hard for anyone to accurately predict the future ... otherwise the would be in Vegas all the time ...
     
  4. Cryptic79

    Cryptic79 VIP Member VIP Member

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    There's a few things you need to take into account.

    1. Apple is one of the best companies at marketing products. I hate saying they're good at anything, but they own at it.

    2. Apple also had a huge, cult-like fanbase. They'd jump all over a pretty looking Apple toilet (iCrap). :p

    3. The iPhone came out on one of the top two networks in the US. The bigger the subscriber base, the better the chance that you get more existing customers to switch.

    4. Blackberry has been established for some time. They have a strong business sector that accounts for lots of sales.

    Android has a battle, but if Google is serious about it, it will compete. There really are only 2 companies that can truly compete with Apple and they are well known...Google and Microsoft. The amount of money either of these 3 companies can pump into R&D and marketing is just insane.

    Give Android 2 years (1 contract). It should look completely different by then.
     
  5. mmealman

    mmealman Member

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    The first android phone just launched last fall without a huge amount of fanfare. With Apple, everything they push out is a huge marketing event with a large customer base ready to lap it up. Actually, they're less customers than they are cult followers. The blackberries already have a large loyal customer base so any new product is going to create a lot of buzz.

    It's going to take some time for Android to gather steam. I don't doubt it will. Google is selling a platform, not a phone and they're not even really selling it. They're giving it away for free. It's really up to the carriers to adopt it and get it out there, but they're slow to move. I think pretty much every big carrier has announced an Android phone, except maybe AT&T which already has iPhone.

    I don't see Android making a "oh wow" big splash. I just see it slowing invading the market with people using it not even really knowing they're using it. It's just what came on their phone and it got there because it works well and it costs the phone manufacturers nothing.
     
  6. punkzanyj

    punkzanyj Well-Known Member

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    I see a lot of G1's on the train here in Chicago.

    Someone else said it, apple's strength is in it's marketing, they don't really invent anything new, just revamp someone else's idea, stick a logo on it, and market the heck out of it. The rabid fanbase observation is absolutely true. Think about it, the original iPhone launched without Exchange support, and the current iPhone still has two major issues

    1 - No cut and paste

    2 - can't run more than one app at once. You can't run an app in the background on the iPhone.

    Would anyone put up with either of these design flaws if iPhone wasn't the most splashiest, trendiest, over-marketed product available? Blackberry didn't even seem to have commercials until the pearl.

    Why is it that everyone is so impatient? The first Android phone has only been out 6 months. That's really not enough time to see much of anything. Android needs to be released on at least one more carrier (sprint, verizon) before we'll see any big movement for it. If it stays with T-Mobile, it's only going to get the youth market. It needs sprint or verizon to get anywhere else.
     
  7. blambu56

    blambu56 Well-Known Member

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    I think everyone is missing the biggest factor in the timing of the G1/Android launch. THE ECONOMY.

    It was bad timing that couldnt be foreseen by anyone. We are in one of the worst recessions since the Great Depression. People will not be spending the extra cash they have to switch providers or buy a new phone just because they want to. When the iPhone came out it was a different time in the economy and people were all about excess. I feel that poeple are learning to be frugal again and spending their money wisely. This is a luxury item not a must have.

    Plus the iPhone has been out for how long now??? Three four years. They have a leg up.
     
  8. 4lph4num3r1c

    4lph4num3r1c Well-Known Member

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    what I think everyone is forgetting is marketing. I can't hardly spit without seeing something about apple. Even with the launch of the G1, there are no advertisements that it runs on ANDROID. If GOOGLE Were to advertise ANDROID and let the general public know what is is capable of,this would be a WHOLE different game. Open- source people. this is the main thing. Advertise it, and they will come!
     
  9. deadite66

    deadite66 Well-Known Member

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    doesn't help that google are making new apps for apple ahead of its own platform.
     
  10. mikebur

    mikebur Member

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    I think it will succeed eventually but only after having more models and not the G1 only.
    It's Google's OS I'm sure they will take it more serious later.
     
  11. tep065

    tep065 Member

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    Something else I think people are forgetting or overlooking...Android isn't finished. The operating system is not even a 1.0..nor has it gone "Gold". Its still a release candidate (RC33). I'm sure the G1 is ONLY meant to be a test market device and is being used as an industry wide beta test. We find the problems with android using the G1, Google dev's fix it, then release the final version in the G2 or the Samsung's Android phone, or that android tablet being released. Thats probably why the commercials are far and few between, but enough to keep people reminded about it. Google is not hurting for cash. I speculate that they are only waiting in the shadows till Android is complete and ready, then do a massive global marketing campaign for everything single android device being released. And MAYBE, just maybe, G1 users will get Android 1.0..>IF< the hardware is compatible at that time.
     
  12. noonehereyet

    noonehereyet No One... VIP Member

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    agreed... we are early adopters and like you said we are the beta testers to see if it is in google's best intrest to pursue this venture.... the simple fact that they are still putting out RC's tells me that there is enough of a base wanting for the OS that they are continuing work...if it flopped and sold only 100,000 units yeah why bother but the numbers were good considering it was an "unknown system" to most people buying the phone... As the old saying goes you can't judge a book by it's cover and you can't judge software on the first beta... Also take into consideration that there are A LOT of phones that will run android just waiting for release my guess would be that the new version of android will be on them and that is when we willl truly see if it will have a good future...
     
  13. drustvold

    drustvold Well-Known Member

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    Theres a big difference between "its the best because its the coolest and everyone and their mom" has one, and "its not as popular but it works better"

    tep065 makes a good point. Once they've fixed some bugs, and added all the must have features (cupcake anyone?) thats when they'll time a new phone release and a huge ad campaign. An ad campaign that would have been wasted and would have damaged their reputation if they had done it at the original launch.
     
  14. mmealman

    mmealman Member

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    I'd tend to agree it shouldn't be marketed much as yet. Google is very much focused on the business sector. They're making a big push for Google Apps in the government sector which is starting to get pretty good reception. Park services use their search engine on documents, change.gov used the Google moderation system and Washington DC uses their apps. Check out http://sites.dc.gov/

    Our own company is moving to their apps. It's still a little rough, needs polish and I'm betting better Android integration is on the books.

    The economy is down, people aren't going to buy much now anyway. Let the carriers push it out. Make it better. Let the phones get cheaper. THEN market it as part of the entire Google online experience.
     
  15. froogloid

    froogloid Member

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    As a person that has skin in the game, I often think about this as well. Are we developing on the right platform? Will android be successful? etc etc etc...

    Here's a blog I wrote earlier this week discussing iPhone v. Android.
    Froogloid Blog Archive iPhone v. Android/Google Phone
     

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