2.2 roll/crawl out - can android compete long term?

[o.maille]

Given the time and apparent problems with the update cycle;

Is android essentially doomed to the same fate as linux?
Will it only be used by people who know deep down it better than the more widely advertise and consumer friendly product on the market but they are forced to (kinda want to) have to know the system inside out and constantly tweek it just to remain at the same pace as the rest of the world?
I don't like samsung much, but the fundimental problem here is a deeper one i think.
Unfortunately winmo 7 is likely to succeed in areas where iphone are weak, especially given their history in GPS based devices and office solutions. Google seems to have all the good ideas; maps with navi and photos, online storage, online office apps, ad supported apps.... BUT looks like microsoft will take these ideas and put them in a nicer more functional package and make more money.
OR
Will Chrome OS rise up to prove to be the ultimate solution for both phone and pc???

I know only a bit about these things and I've messed with my galaxy s and it works well enough for me BUT I would imagine the average consumer who bought an android phone is frustrated

 

[Snipe315]

Short Answer: NO
Long Answer: NOPE

The Android OS will be a dominant force in the phone market for a LONG time. Sales have already surpassed the iPhone.

This one is here to stay.



And I don't know many folks who are excited about Windows Mobile 7 or the devices it will be one. That might change if Microsoft can overcome their horrible history with buggy software that crashes often and compatibility issues.

 

[DellyBelly]

Given the time and apparent problems with the update cycle;

Is android essentially doomed to the same fate as linux?
Will it only be used by people who know deep down it better than the more widely advertise and consumer friendly product on the market but they are forced to (kinda want to) have to know the system inside out and constantly tweek it just to remain at the same pace as the rest of the world?
I don't like samsung much, but the fundimental problem here is a deeper one i think.
Unfortunately winmo 7 is likely to succeed in areas where iphone are weak, especially given their history in GPS based devices and office solutions. Google seems to have all the good ideas; maps with navi and photos, online storage, online office apps, ad supported apps.... BUT looks like microsoft will take these ideas and put them in a nicer more functional package and make more money.
OR
Will Chrome OS rise up to prove to be the ultimate solution for both phone and pc???

I know only a bit about these things and I've messed with my galaxy s and it works well enough for me BUT I would imagine the average consumer who bought an android phone is frustrated

I think you give the "Average" consumer too much credit; I actually work in the mobile space and honestly the "average" consumer really doesn't care about doing anything outside of facebook updates, texting and making calls. Some are now getting into using the browsers for some things, but comparing google OS to the relationship of Linux and Windows/OSX is off base.

Honestly, my mom and sister both have android devices and they are still at 1.6, I haven't gotten one e-mail or question on getting the update to 2.2 and the reason why is that the only people who really care are a little more technical and some of the "I want the latest OS even if it doesn't do anything for me" people.

Trust me in saying that while us nerds may be the most vocal in bitching about getting to 2.2; the vast majority of people using these things don't know or care as long as their phone does the basic stuff.

It's the same reason my mom still uses XP until I go and update her computer. MS has a good phone OS; but don't expect every mom and pop to jump on board; at least not for a little while. MS doesn't yet have a "DROID" or an "Iphone" yet and with the general public they need that identity to justify a move; not to mention the competition; they are late to the game and Google and Apple clearly aren't going anywhere.

 

[macmelvyn]

O Maille, you hit the whole arguement on the head with some real insight.
Sales were booming when Anroid was the system of promise. Inertia seems the order of the day at a time when Micro$oft are making a very serious move. This time next year Android could be on the "also-ran" list unless users are taken with development. This user is on his way to investigate ease of us etc, exactly as you suggest.

 

[OfTheDamned]

I have to agree with Snipe315 & DellyBelly.

Knowing what OS you have is a geek thing. The average consumer doesn't pay any attention. It is one of the main reasons that the iPhone became so popular. People were able to see it on TV and they started saying, "Hey, I want my phone to do that." Then the Droid does commercials started showing up and the same thing happened. The only time people start paying attention to what OS they have is when a real game changer comes around. That is how it was with Google Nav. Suddenly people that had never noticed or cared really wanted 1.6 just so they could have Nav. It may happen again when something like Google TV or Netflix come to Android, but until then most users won't care.

As far as updates go Android is getting them faster than any other mobile OS on the market. BlackBerries and iPhones see OS updates about once a year, maybe. Android has seen 3 in the last 12 months with talk of more on the way. The only reason any delays happen right now is because of some of the custom UIs that manufacturers add to the phones. I believe all the capable vanilla Android already have 2.2.

 

[macmelvyn]

Dear OfTheDamned (should that be one word?),
Whilst your first premise is right on the button I think the fundamental still remains that we are NOT getting the fixes that you mention in your second premise, and if we do get them it is going to be well over a year since the system's launch? Having said that there really does seem some general confusion about fixes and upgrades, we must have seen a couple of dozen differing statements from HTC sources! Thanks for a lucid article, you also make an indirect point that has been with us for the last 20 odd years. Apple have only one piece of hardware to write drivers for (actually 3 or four). Their system software simply doesn't seem to suffer some of the slings and arrows that we have witnessed with Windows over the years.

 

[safeplayer22]

It's all about marketing or in other words how you market the product. Apple has been doing it very well.

 

[o.maille]

I agree that android sales have been very good to date but the mobile market is very quick to change just look at the symbian decline.

Now that app buying is a big thing (if you can buy apps in your country) people are gradually learning what OS they run just as they did when they saw pretty imacs. The same can be said for os versions, the big seller of android at the mo is the flash support (2.2+). On that same point is google hampered in advertising buy having multiple os versions for sale on different phones? thus is the regular update cycle a good thing?

coming back to the linux windows comparison, granted android phones can do a lot of average things (faulty GPS, dropping calls, etc aside) and are easy to use, but will people change quickly with the advertising from microsoft/apple. Also like the windows thing because people have bought more expensive apps for iphone they've lock themselves into a iphone commitment.

I don't claim to know where things will definitely end up but the lack of a good out of the box ui and thus out-dating os functions by the introduction of features on unavailable upgrades will frustrate purchasers.

 

[Kabob]

Dear OfTheDamned (should that be one word?),
Whilst your first premise is right on the button I think the fundamental still remains that we are NOT getting the fixes that you mention in your second premise, and if we do get them it is going to be well over a year since the system's launch? Having said that there really does seem some general confusion about fixes and upgrades, we must have seen a couple of dozen differing statements from HTC sources! Thanks for a lucid article, you also make an indirect point that has been with us for the last 20 odd years. Apple have only one piece of hardware to write drivers for (actually 3 or four). Their system software simply doesn't seem to suffer some of the slings and arrows that we have witnessed with Windows over the years.

Agreed, but the "one piece of hardware" thing also prevents the iPhone from hitting every market area. You think a guy who's played with the 4.3" screen on a Droid X or Evo 4G who is big into watching videos and such will feel the same way with the 3.5" iPhone screen? Do you think someone who's on the business end and has found a "Blackberry Replacement" will get the same response out of the UI of WP7 (and I doubt there will be as many phones made for WP7).

While it's true, you've got to tailor Android to work on all sorts of devices, you also get the benefit of having various devices tailored to their owner's needs. It definitely needs some refinement, but it is getting alot better.

 

[OfTheDamned]

Dear OfTheDamned (should that be one word?),
Whilst your first premise is right on the button I think the fundamental still remains that we are NOT getting the fixes that you mention in your second premise, and if we do get them it is going to be well over a year since the system's launch? Having said that there really does seem some general confusion about fixes and upgrades, we must have seen a couple of dozen differing statements from HTC sources! Thanks for a lucid article, you also make an indirect point that has been with us for the last 20 odd years. Apple have only one piece of hardware to write drivers for (actually 3 or four). Their system software simply doesn't seem to suffer some of the slings and arrows that we have witnessed with Windows over the years.

On here it is one word.

While I can't say it is so for every phone out there it is true for quite a number of them. The HTC Eris for example came out in November of 2009 and received a software (patch) update in December and another in January or February. It then received 2.1 in April or May of this year. That is roughly 6 months for an OS update where a custom UI had to be integrated. I don't consider that all too bad.

 

[Frisco]

I have to agree with Snipe315 & DellyBelly.

Knowing what OS you have is a geek thing. The average consumer doesn't pay any attention.

I agree, but I also know that people are not static; that is, they change.

I think the reason many move forward with their devices is that they want to get the most out of them. For a long while they'll only know what they have to know. But idle time and jealousy of others doing trick stuff will bring them to near geek-hood over time.

Not all, but some. I'd say over half. <---- going out on a limb here

 

[Tangent]

I think you give the "Average" consumer too much credit; I actually work in the mobile space and honestly the "average" consumer really doesn't care about doing anything outside of facebook updates, texting and making calls. Some are now getting into using the browsers for some things, but comparing google OS to the relationship of Linux and Windows/OSX is off base.

...

Bingo. I'm eagerly awaiting the 2.2 update for my Slide. My wife will just want to know if her Facebook and email apps will still work after the update is installed.

It'll be interesting to see what - if anything - happens with Chrome OS. I can't imagine Google will compete with itself too much. Maybe Android will be the phone and tablet OS while Chrome will be the laptop and PC OS? Maybe they'll just end up merging the features of the two into one OS?

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

I agree, but I also know that people are not static; that is, they change.

I think the reason many move forward with their devices is that they want to get the most out of them. For a long while they'll only know what they have to know. But idle time and jealousy of others doing trick stuff will bring them to near geek-hood over time.

Not all, but some. I'd say over half. <---- going out on a limb here

That's a long, unstable limb my friend. I'd say it's more like 2-5% go geek over time, the rest remain completely oblivious.