I do not see it that way. I think what happened were cell phones and cheap laptops and marketing departments telling us we needed these devices. My first laptop was a 486 with a 40 mB HDD and almost no memory compared to today. It cost much cash.
PDAs WERE the next great thing. What happened was cells arrived...
Bob, obviously we're in unique positions with our insider knowledge of Palm's history.
Back when I was working for
Freeborn & Peters, I bought the first generation Palm Pilot at the discount price that we got for representing Palm/USR. (I was also in charge of the pool laptops for the associates' use.) Later on, when I was working elsewhere and was offered a Handspring PDA "as a Christmas gift" from my boss, I declined because I didn't want another electronic leash, and already had a
Psion 5mx if I really needed a PDA. (I never really did.)
IME it wasn't cellphones in general, but cellular data in particular, and the merging of all PDA functionality into the phone that did the trick. When I had my Sharp
Zaurus, I beta tested a clip-on 2G mobile data product. It never worked very well, and when I was in a restaurant waiting for severe thunderstorms to pass, I was one-upped by someone who had a BlackBerry, and was watching the radar pictures with a lot more ease than my pathetic data modem allowed me to do on my Zaurus.
Pundits had been predicting a synthesis of cell phones and PDAs around that time (c.1999), and they were right on the money for once. I would say that the cellular data service is what saved the PDA more than anything else. Using serial cables and crude computer software to sync a Palm Pilot was a chore back then, and Wi-Fi never became ubiquitous enough to make that access method a real success. As soon as they melded the cellphone, PDA and cellular data to make the smart phone, that was what saved the PDA...by killing it.