EVO pre sales predictions

[texasez]

S Sprint Nextel management conference call takeaways - FBR Capital (4.79 )
FBR Capital notes, On May 24, it held a conference call with Matt Carter, president of the Sprint 4G group, and Iyad Tarazi, vice president of network development and engineering. Firm came away from the call encouraged by on multiple fronts including the co's 4G network strategy and potential to lower its cost structure and churn-a major investor focus. Pre-registrations for the HTC EVO 4G device are the highest for any device in the co's history and Sprint is "more pleased" with the ratio of new prospects, particularly from existing iPhone customers. FBR estimates close to 1 mln registrations to date and a 70% to 75% upgrade ratio, which is encouraging.

From briefing.com

 

[eieio]

link please

 

[SprintFun]

1 million registrations? Am I reading that right? Can't be THAT many...

 

[eieio]

1 million registrations? Am I reading that right? Can't be THAT many...

That's why I asked for the link, WTF?? ain't no way..

 

[Bek]

StreetInsider.com - FBR Capital Maintains Bullish Stance On Sprint (S) Following Management Conference Call

This link discusses the Conference Call, with a few choice quotes, but no mention of the Evo.

 

[Jordus]

they probably mean registrations on their webpage that says "notify me when the evo is ready!"

For some reason Sprint alludes to that equaling pre-order numbers, which is crazy.

 

[clambert1273]

the link is there: From briefing.com

however, it is a paid service so it probably has more of the full article than streetinsider does (or at least just doesn't take sections).

I can't login to it though - so if someone can and can paste the full article.. would be great

 

[Rigmaster]

There's no way to "pre-register" or pre-order on the Sprint website so there's definitely some liberal use and play of words going on here. Do I think 1M have said here's my email and tell me more - yes. Is that pre-registering or pre-ordering --NFW! And 75% upgrade??? That makes even less sense.

FBR and other people should have asked "what exactly does that mean and how does it exactly figure into your sales estimation?"

Droid and Incredible sold 1M with a much differently executed process so I just don't get why this isn't being done more clearly.

 

[eieio]

There's no way to "pre-register" or pre-order on the Sprint website so there's definitely some liberal use and play of words going on here. Do I think 1M have said here's my email and tell me more - yes. Is that pre-registering or pre-ordering --NFW! And 75% upgrade??? That makes even less sense.

FBR and other people should have asked "what exactly does that mean and how does it exactly figure into your sales estimation?"

Droid and Incredible sold 1M with a much differently executed process so I just don't get why this isn't being done more clearly.

True but I assume they know how many units the retailers have pre-sold.. I could see 75% of those out of contract now wanting to buy an EVO..

Don't get me wrong, 1 Mil pre-orders is hard to swallow..

 

[Rigmaster]

They could easily sell 1M in the first 90 days with marketing, but I agree with others that they're holding off on that until after iPhone release. I don't think that's a good strategy. I'd rather try to hold a giant down than try to knock a giant down because at least then momentum's on my side.

I still think most of the initial sales will come from people who are awaiting upgrades or have been coveting the phone and holding off from other phones for the last 6 months. That's not 1M though. Sprint would need to reach and compel a lot of new eyeballs to get to the 1M mark.

 

[Aridon]

They aren't going to sell a million evos in 90 days.

First, the ten dollar luxury fee will scare many away.

Second sprints network, justified our not is seen as inferior

Third, verizon already had shown off it's own 4.3 inch motorolla shadow

Fourth, they are competing with the iphone again.

Fifth, the reviews haven't been "omg buy this device it pwns"

In fact there are two glaring issues which may keep techies from running out. Laggy multi touch test on xda and shitty video taking come to mind. http://forum.xda-developers.com/showthread.php?t=687835

My guess is they will move 350k units in 6 months. I'll be one of them.

 

[Aridon]

Let me also add that the evo will not materially contribute to sub generation.

 

[clambert1273]

so let's make it a poll.... and some side betting

 

[eieio]

They aren't going to sell a million evos in 90 days.

First, the ten dollar luxury fee will scare many away.

Second sprints network, justified our not is seen as inferior

Third, verizon already had shown off it's own 4.3 inch motorolla shadow

Fourth, they are competing with the iphone again.

Fifth, the reviews haven't been "omg buy this device it pwns"

In fact there are two glaring issues which may keep techies from running out. Laggy multi touch test on xds and shit video taking.

My guess is they will move 350k units in 6 months.

350K the first week...

 

[texasez]

That's why I asked for the link, WTF?? ain't no way..

It is from briefing.com and the brokerage firm list in the first post.
FBR capital made the estimates. Briefing.com is where I found it.
Briefing.com is a paid site.

 

[Roman G.]

350K the first week...

That is where my money is resting, 350k+ in the first week.

 

[Geniuz650]

350k Units in 6 months, not even. They'll sell about that much in the first month.