Amazon Fire Speculation Thread

[halon]

Amazon phone, over or under 200,000 sales?

 

[AntimonyER]

So, basically the only thing it has going for it is dynamic perspective?

Edit: and free prime for a year.

Hmm. I'll pass.

Edit: Still.

 

[drexappeal]

Amazon phone, over or under 200,000 sales?

What did the moto x do last year?

 

[Rxpert83]

What did the moto x do last year?

"According to the Journal, Motorola sold 900,000 Moto X smartphones globally in the first quarter. In contrast, Apple sold 26 million of its iPhone 5s in the same period."


http://www.cnet.com/news/motorola-to-shutter-texas-factory-building-moto-x/


500,000 from august to November
http://mobile.theverge.com/2013/11/12/5097532/moto-x-only-500000-devices-reportedly-sold

 

[drexappeal]

So, basically the only thing it has going for it is dynamic perspective?

Edit: and free prime for a year.

Hmm. I'll pass.

Edit: Still.

Me too. What they did to achieve the 3d affect is cool (w/ the 4 infrared ffc's, but not enough for me to buy.

Amazon phone, over or under 200,000 sales?

I say over. I think this phone might appeal to avid Kindle users, as they're familiar with those devices (and use them for reading), so a phone version would be appealing for them, while on the go. The Kindle Fire devices sold relatively well. The only reason it would be under is the ATT exclusive, but that hasn't stopped other ATT exclusives from having good sales in the past.

"According to the Journal, Motorola sold 900,000 Moto X smartphones globally in the first quarter. In contrast, Apple sold 26 million of its iPhone 5s in the same period."


Motorola to shutter Texas factory building Moto X - CNET


500,000 from august to November
Moto X doesn't mark the spot: only 500,000 devices sold so far, report says | The Verge

Thanks for posting that info Rxpert83. Based on this info, I'd say that the Amazon would sell a little less than that, but more-so in that range, as compared to the numbers that all the flagships are doing.

 

[AntimonyER]

Me too. What they did to achieve the 3d affect is cool (w/ the 4 infrared ffc's, but not enough for me to buy.



I say over. I think this phone might appeal to avid Kindle users, as they're familiar with those devices (and use them for reading), so a phone version would be appealing for them, while on the go. The Kindle Fire devices sold relatively well. The only reason it would be under is the ATT exclusive, but that hasn't stopped other ATT exclusives from having good sales in the past.



Thanks for posting that info Rxpert83. Based on this info, I'd say that the Amazon would sell a little less than that, but more-so in that range, as compared to the numbers that all the flagships are doing.

I would think it will sell less, because it's AT&T only, where Moto X was all carriers,

 

[drexappeal]

I would think it will sell less, because it's AT&T only, where Moto X was all carriers,

I think it'll all be based on the consumers that are Kindle fans, that are also ATT customers. It's realistic to expect it to sell less than the Moto X, due to the exclusivity, but wouldn't be surprised if it sold just as well. Amazon has an extremely big marketing reach and has the money to push sales.

What I find a little funny about the Amazon Fire phone is the video that they interviewed some game developers, one of them talks about the camera affect as not being a "gimmick." Thing is, if it doesn't necessarily prove anymore useful than a person sliding their phone up and down or moving the screen to show what they need, then it reverts to being just that...especially because it's a proprietary feature.

 

[EarlyMon]

I expect the Amazon phone to be practically a giveaway with a tie in to some as yet unknown home entertainment service that they're going to attempt with their new TV box.

Like the Kindle - a gateway to other sales with the device too cheap to pass up.

And AT&T radios means ready for Europe and other regions.

 

[drexappeal]

I expect the Amazon phone to be practically a giveaway with a tie in to some as yet unknown home entertainment service that they're going to attempt with their new TV box.

Like the Kindle - a gateway to other sales with the device too cheap to pass up.

And AT&T radios means ready for Europe and other regions.

Very good point, EM. Means to an end. Fire phone is another means to upsell other products offered by Amazon. What's poignant is the fact that the Fire phone was said to give "special" ways to making purchases easier, for those shopping through Amazon. Whether it will really work, I'd be curious to see what the projections are.

 

[Rxpert83]

I expect the Amazon phone to be practically a giveaway with a tie in to some as yet unknown home entertainment service that they're going to attempt with their new TV box.

Like the Kindle - a gateway to other sales with the device too cheap to pass up.

And AT&T radios means ready for Europe and other regions.

I saw a few posts on G+ that said they'd use the standard $200/2yr contract pricing model.

If that's true. Id expect it to underperform

If they did $0 down on next/jump/whatever 4 letter word ATT uses I could see it doing better with older crowds because of its dedicated panic button to CS.

I'm still not sure why my phone needs to know where my head is at all times though. I guess we'll have to wait and see what other kinds of functionality devs use.

 

[EarlyMon]

Boy was I wrong.

Selling at top end prices.

Wow. Srsly, wow.

 

[jhawkkw]

Wasn't there rumors a while back dealing with Amazon/AT&T and premium data that wouldn't count against your data cap? If so, maybe that's another perk?

 

[Rxpert83]

Wasn't there rumors a while back dealing with Amazon/AT&T and premium data that wouldn't count against your data cap? If so, maybe that's another perk?

Yeah, it would be nice if amazon prime streaming didn't count against your data cap, but that doesn't appear to be the case here.

At least not on the early reports I'm seeing the tech crowd talk about

 

[drexappeal]

I saw a few posts on G+ that said they'd use the standard $200/2yr contract pricing model.

If that's true. Id expect it to underperform

If they did $0 down on next/jump/whatever 4 letter word ATT uses I could see it doing better with older crowds because of its dedicated panic button to CS.

I'm still not sure why my phone needs to know where my head is at all times though. I guess we'll have to wait and see what other kinds of functionality devs use.

I have a feeling that, similar to the moto x, pricing will drop very quickly after launch.

Boy was I wrong.

Selling at top end prices.

Wow. Srsly, wow.

 

[jhawkkw]

Yeah, it would be nice if amazon prime streaming didn't count against your data cap, but that doesn't appear to be the case here.

At least not on the early reports I'm seeing the tech crowd talk about

Yeah, I'll have to dig up those articles to find out more about those rumors. If that was the case, would more of you guys be interested?

 

[Rxpert83]

I have a feeling that, similar to the moto x, pricing will drop very quickly after launch.

The HTC first comes to mind EarlyMon was right, they need to be selling this at or near cost to get people into the ecosystem.

But IMO one of the biggest hurdles this phone has to overcome is no play store. If you aren't already invested in the amazon app store you'll need to repurchase apps

For people that have a kindle fire, that may not be an issue

 

[EarlyMon]

Here's the basis for Project Tango, from when Johnny Lee was a student back in 2010. Some of you may have seen this, I've been posting this video regularly for four years.

He's the guy in charge of Project Tango. His first job out of school was with Microsoft, doing some QA on the then new Kinnect (no, he didn't invent that one).

There's a lot of polarizing hostility against anything with 3D in the title as a gimmick.

QHD is a gimmick. Running 8 cores at on a mobile device under yesterday's battery technology is a gimmick (you can't cure bloatware with more cores). Heartbeat monitors are a gimmick (get an app, use your camera, get the same results). Bokah photography is a gimmick.

But they're gimmicks that many of us enjoy or want, no big deal.

I've been wanting to see how a head tracking UI would work for 4 years. I've been wanting to get my hands on an immersive 3D UI ever since watching Earth: Final Conflict.

The new meme that seems to be gaining popularity on blogosphere comments is that this is a phone for soccer moms who don't better, because of the 3D gimmick.

I don't agree. If developers step up and really, how shall I put it, *develop* for this concept it could really be something.

If enough young people shout, get off my 2D lawn, this UI could die before it gets a chance.

I'm glad Amazon stepped up to the plate and is offering this. I'm not happy that they're alone. It's going to take either a lot of ecosystem support or some breakthrough apps for this concept to take off and leave the novelty category.

Especially with the raging hostility by people who haven't checked into this but already know it's 3D so it sucks. That was bad enough with the HTC Evo 3D. "OMG, the 3D display hurts my eyes on this phone. One look at Sense and I could see that everyone using this is an idiot! :rofl: " Classic dumbass remarks from people who didn't stop to notice that Sense was in 2D.

I fear that the same thing will be happening here.

Amazon is clueless how to market this and the mouth breathers writing blogosphere articles not clarifying head tracking because they were too lazy to find out aren't helping.

 

[drexappeal]

Here's the basis for Project Tango, from when Johnny Lee was a student back in 2010. Some of you may have seen this, I've been posting this video regularly for four years.

He's the guy in charge of Project Tango. His first job out of school was with Microsoft, doing some QA on the then new Kinnect (no, he didn't invent that one).

There's a lot of polarizing hostility against anything with 3D in the title as a gimmick.

QHD is a gimmick. Running 8 cores at on a mobile device under yesterday's battery technology is a gimmick (you can't cure bloatware with more cores). Heartbeat monitors are a gimmick (get an app, use your camera, get the same results). Bokah photography is a gimmick.

But they're gimmicks that many of us enjoy or want, no big deal.

I've been wanting to see how a head tracking UI would work for 4 years. I've been wanting to get my hands on an immersive 3D UI ever since watching Earth: Final Conflict.

The new meme that seems to be gaining popularity on blogosphere comments is that this is a phone for soccer moms who don't better, because of the 3D gimmick.

I don't agree. If developers step up and really, how shall I put it, *develop* for this concept it could really be something.

If enough young people shout, get off my 2D lawn, this UI could die before it gets a chance.

I'm glad Amazon stepped up to the plate and is offering this. I'm not happy that they're alone. It's going to take either a lot of ecosystem support or some breakthrough apps for this concept to take off and leave the novelty category.

Especially with the raging hostility by people who haven't checked into this but already know it's 3D so it sucks. That was bad enough with the HTC Evo 3D. "OMG, the 3D display hurts my eyes on this phone. One look at Sense and I could see that everyone using this is an idiot! :rofl: " Classic dumbass remarks from people who didn't stop to notice that Sense was in 2D.

I fear that the same thing will be happening here.

Amazon is clueless how to market this and the mouth breathers writing blogosphere articles not clarifying head tracking because they were too lazy to find out aren't helping.

The bloggers won't take the time to do it, EM. It's the same reason there are always complaints about OEM UI's. They just don't want to take the time to explain that to the general consumers that are reading/watching their reviews.

But, I do have to say, regarding the 3D thing...I'll never be a fan of it and I personally feel that it still will be generally construed as a gimmick. No matter how much you justify against that train of thought, with facts and substance, it's just not an important enough component of people's smartphone needs. Ultimately, the main reason it was incorporated into a smartphone (and it's only Amazon) is because it's generally viewed as a gimmick. If it weren't, then there'd be no reason for OEM's to exclude it from their offerings. Who knows, maybe Amazon will get enough good feedback about it, that it'll make other OEM's consider it. I personally hated the EVO 3D (I'm sure you remember, at least a little). When seeing it in person, even on sense, I could see the secondary screen when turning it from side to side (kinda like the cracker jack box toy w/ hologram stickers). It bothered me and my eyes. I was an exception because my eyes are generally very sensitive when it comes to 3D and 1st person shooter games, but I know I'm not alone in that boat. There are many people that don't like 3D...hence, the reason that 3D TV's haven't blown up as a "must have." Before manufacturers could even start generating great sales out of 3D, they moved on to their new 4K "gimmick."...LOL. What's funny is, the highest profit margin wasn't in the TV's, but the glasses that were sold separately.

 

[drexappeal]

The HTC first comes to mind EarlyMon was right, they need to be selling this at or near cost to get people into the ecosystem.

But IMO one of the biggest hurdles this phone has to overcome is no play store. If you aren't already invested in the amazon app store you'll need to repurchase apps

For people that have a kindle fire, that may not be an issue

Yup. And the Kindle purchasers have a very viable following. Not sure if it'll be enough for Amazon to feel comfortable with the sales, but we'll see when the first returns come back.

 

[EarlyMon]

The bloggers won't take the time to do it, EM. It's the same reason there are always complaints about OEM UI's. They just don't want to take the time to explain that to the general consumers that are reading/watching their reviews.

But, I do have to say, regarding the 3D thing...I'll never be a fan of it and I personally feel that it still will be generally construed as a gimmick. No matter how much you justify against that train of thought, with facts and substance, it's just not an important enough component of people's smartphone needs. Ultimately, the main reason it was incorporated into a smartphone (and it's only Amazon) is because it's generally viewed as a gimmick. If it weren't, then there'd be no reason for OEM's to exclude it from their offerings. Who knows, maybe Amazon will get enough good feedback about it, that it'll make other OEM's consider it. I personally hated the EVO 3D (I'm sure you remember, at least a little). When seeing it in person, even on sense, I could see the secondary screen when turning it from side to side (kinda like the cracker jack box toy w/ hologram stickers). It bothered me and my eyes. I was an exception because my eyes are generally very sensitive when it comes to 3D and 1st person shooter games, but I know I'm not alone in that boat. There are many people that don't like 3D...hence, the reason that 3D TV's haven't blown up as a "must have." Before manufacturers could even start generating great sales out of 3D, they moved on to their new 4K "gimmick."...LOL. What's funny is, the highest profit margin wasn't in the TV's, but the glasses that were sold separately.

This is where we shear on HTC products - they're famous for getting the prime panels in people's hands for review, then delivering from multiple sources. Eye sensitivity has nothing to do with it - I had the Sharp panel, your 3vo did not. No question about it. Water under the bridge, but that's why novox77 and I were adamant about swapping phones if you didn't like what you saw.

In the case of the Amazon phone, it's not a 3D panel.

Have you seen the gallery effect on the M8 where (user selectable) you can tilt the phone and it changes the perspective very slightly? It's a quasi-3D effect because the picture stopped being a flat 2D by using stored data from the Duo camera to pull it off.

Project Tango / head tracking / Amazon phone is that on steroids. Instead of two cameras, it's four evaluating your perspective and adjusting the UI in real time.

With a 2D panel, so no holographic anything is possible. And that's a 2D TV in the video I posted. No 3D glasses.

Where's the two infrared sources then if the Amazon phone is the same as the YouTube I posted?

Simple. Ever see red eye in a photograph?

And there's the heart of the matter. Once the expression 3D is applied to head tracking, Elvis has left the building.

Is it a gimmick? Yes.

Was the 3vo a gimmick? Yes.

Is the Note's s-pen a gimmick? Yes.

All I'm saying is, the word gimmick conveniently hides real issues. God forbid that any of would admit to buying gimmicks.

I'll start. Multiple cores are my favorite gimmick. Make no mistake, they're a gimmick.

See what I did there?

 

[drexappeal]

This is where we shear on HTC products - they're famous for getting the prime panels in people's hands for review, then delivering from multiple sources. Eye sensitivity has nothing to do with it - I had the Sharp panel, your 3vo did not. No question about it. Water under the bridge, but that's why novox77 and I were adamant about swapping phones if you didn't like what you saw.

In the case of the Amazon phone, it's not a 3D panel.

Have you seen the gallery effect on the M8 where (user selectable) you can tilt the phone and it changes the perspective very slightly? It's a quasi-3D effect because the picture stopped being a flat 2D by using stored data from the Duo camera to pull it off.

Project Tango / head tracking / Amazon phone is that on steroids. Instead of two cameras, it's four evaluating your perspective and adjusting the UI in real time.

With a 2D panel, so no holographic anything is possible. And that's a 2D TV in the video I posted. No 3D glasses.

Where's the two infrared sources then if the Amazon phone is the same as the YouTube I posted?

Simple. Ever see red eye in a photograph?

And there's the heart of the matter. Once the expression 3D is applied to head tracking, Elvis has left the building.

Is it a gimmick? Yes.

Was the 3vo a gimmick? Yes.

Is the Note's s-pen a gimmick? Yes.

All I'm saying is, the word gimmick conveniently hides real issues. God forbid that any of would admit to buying gimmicks.

I'll start. Multiple cores are my favorite gimmick. Make no mistake, they're a gimmick.

See what I did there?

Yup. Very, very good take, EM. Oh, they changed panels on the 3VO? I didn't even catch that back then. Nonetheless, like you said, water under the bridge. I likely would've still moved on to get the Photon anyway and was still extremely happy with that phone, but shows how all these little gimmicks could be made so much better, if there would be more effort put into making them "great", rather than "just decent" or "ok."
-EDIT- Can you imagine if Amazon dropped creating their own device, but instead offered up a partnership with one of the major mobile OEM's? The Fire phone could've been something "new" and "innovative" that would have a much wider outreach. You might know the answer, but is that tech something that could easily be mass produced? Only reason I ask is, maybe there was concern with how many units could actually be produced (hence the ATT exclusivity and creating the phone in house).

And I get ya more with regards to the Amazon phone. And, to an extent, I do agree regarding the marketing. I think they have a good enough marketing team to sell the phone, but not necessarily to sell how great the tech is (based on what you've explained). That also tells me where Amazon's priority is. They're selling the phone, to sell some more. If you've watched the show Silicon Valley, it kinda reminds me of Pied Piper. Tech has been created that would revolutionize the industry, but it's only seen as one sided until someone from the outside pointed out that it could be used for more than just a means to find "copyright music infringement."

If you haven't watched the show, I highly recommend it. Especially for this crowd. 30 minute comedy and I think there were only 8 episodes in this first season, but definitely a very entertaining show to watch.

 

[Evil.Bonsai]

Here's the basis for Project Tango, from when Johnny Lee was a student back in 2010. Some of you may have seen this, I've been posting this video regularly for four years.

Very cool video. Not sure how it'd work on the phone, but I already use very similar setup on my pc, with TrackIR. I wear a cap with an IR reflecter (3 pts, for x,y,z) and have an IR camera sitting on top of my monitor. Works GREAT for flight sims with a clickable cockpit and 6DOF.

Hadn't thought to do so before, but now I'm wondering if there's a 'virtual desktop' I could use similar to what he shows in video, compatible with TrackIR.

 

[drexappeal]

Very cool video. Not sure how it'd work on the phone, but I already use very similar setup on my pc, with TrackIR. I wear a cap with an IR reflecter (3 pts, for x,y,z) and have an IR camera sitting on top of my monitor. Works GREAT for flight sims with a clickable cockpit and 6DOF.

Hadn't thought to do so before, but now I'm wondering if there's a 'virtual desktop' I could use similar to what he shows in video, compatible with TrackIR.

Video was definitely amazing and... I didn't get dizzy! Although, I would have to see in person to know for sure.

After watching that video, I hope there are more people like EM that will make this tech more of a reality than just a generalized gimmick.

This tech could bring video chat to a different level, for personal and business purposes. My father is a retired architect and this type of tech could be so useful for his industry.

 

[BigCiX]

Just finished the over an hour video of Jeff Bezos introducing the For phone. Although I have to say being exclusive will hurt sales there are a few things that I seen on this phone that makes it stand out. Beside the dynamic prospective I also like the inferred on the cameras giving it a clear view under any lighting conditions. The flicking on the music app is also another cool feature. Overall I say the one thing that keeps me away from this phone is Fire OS and the lack of Google play.