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General Prediction: Smartphone vs Wearables

Discussion in 'Android Lounge' started by dan330, Apr 6, 2016.

  1. dan330

    dan330 Android Expert
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    hi everyone...

    I was bored and while looking online at smartwatches... I came up with a prediction..
    total guess on my part.

    Right now... we have smartphones.. and they connect with smartwatches to help display information.

    I predict that in about 3-5 yrs... the roles will be reversed.
    a wearable (most likely a watch) will be the main communication device to the wireless network.
    Everything else will be connected to help display information to the user.

    eyeglasses
    display tablets (big or small)
    TVs
    computers / Laptops
    cars
    all connect to the smartwatch for it's information / internet / call needs.

    so instead of having a smartphone..
    it will be just a 4 to 6 inch tablet.. that we use to connect to the smartwatch.. to make calls / surf internet / use apps / data.

    so everyone will have a smartwatch...
    and how we choose to interact / communicate ... will be with anything we want as an ad on option. and even specific to our environment / location.
     

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    #1 dan330, Apr 6, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2016
  2. kate

    kate Dreaming of Bugdroid.
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    With current battery technology I don't think a smartwatch will be able to handle being the main device, there isn't enough room inside a watch for all the required power.

    Prices would also have to fall for many people to buy both a smartwatch and cell phone/tablet.
     
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  3. zuben el genub

    zuben el genub Android Expert
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    No small wearable. If you are farsighted, you'd need help reading info on a watch, and having watch speak all your info could get embarrassing. Citizen would have to put it out.
    I've had my Citizen watch for over 10 years on the original charge.

    Also no wearable a la Google glass out and about. NO DRIVING, and in some cases you can be busted for being a pain while you are walking. Find a place to sit down and enjoy your toys, but not at others' expense.
     
  4. dan330

    dan330 Android Expert
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    of course.. in 3 to 5 yrs.. there will be some big advances in batteries.. to help watches last longer.

    but once it does.. and a smartwatch will be the main communication device.
    so other devices will NOT need the communication ... other than to connect to the watch.
    no more need for expensive smartphones. just in-expensive display devices.

    so these other devices can be a lot cheaper and come in many forms.
    like say .. foldable or bendable displays.
    things in your home... mirrors, windows, tables, TV.. whatever...

    in malls / stores...
    screens and displays .. become your connected information centers...

    anything.. anyplace....
     
  5. dan330

    dan330 Android Expert
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    all the processing, data, storage, GPS, heart rate, speed, communication, whatever .. will be in the smartwatch.

    everything else will just be a display
    showing you your info
    .. how, when, and where... is up to you.
     
  6. Hadron

    Hadron  
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    You are describing what's called a "personal area network" of peripherals around a hub (in your model the watch). It was a fashionable "concept" a few years back, gone a bit quiet lately, but always seemed possible to me.

    However, I think it's much more likely that the hub will be a phone than a watch on the timescale here: packing the radios and battery into a watch in 3-5 years seems unlikely. Remember that the biggest gain in smartphone battery life in the last 5 years has simply been bigger batteries, partially made possible by design, part by bigger phones. Also there's heat dissipation from the main SoC to consider - how hot do you want your wrist to get when gaming or streaming (and heat isn't good for batteries, so another reason not to put it all in a tiny box just yet).

    The challenge to this model is that a bigger hub is most attractive if it also works as a stand alone device, i.e. a phone, in which case the rest are optional accessories, which is where we are now. I can see things going the way you describe (maybe with a pocket hub, such as a small screen phone, at least initially), but on a longer timescale than that. But it will need a more compelling "screen" peripheral to drive adoption, such as proper AR overlay specs or pocketable roll-up screens - given that the hub can evolve, but while you are carrying a slab of screen anyway you may as well use the space for the most demanding processing and radio interfaces as well, rather than restrict these by sticking them in a much smaller device.
     
    #6 Hadron, Apr 6, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2016
    Lordvincent 90 likes this.
  7. dan330

    dan330 Android Expert
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    I agree battery is the biggest hurtle ..

    with Tesla's new Model 3.. and it's huge success.. 278,000 orders in 1 week.. just in USA.
    this will drive other auto makers to get off their rich ass and make real effort in this area. Huge changes will come fast.
    I think this will push battery tech ...

    Displays are getting huge break throughs.. prices have been dropping fast...
    a roll-out or fold-out screen .. in your pocket.

    I guess my time table might be fast.. but how fast things have changed... you never know
     
  8. Gmash

    Gmash Android Expert
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    A smart watch will never be my main communication device, because I will never own one. I could never stand wearing a regular watch, and I'll definitely never wear one of those ridiculous Dick Tracy devices on my person.
     
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  9. dan330

    dan330 Android Expert
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    I am sure it will take time to assimilate into the masses.
    once it gets started... if it happens

    small group at first .. the ones that already have smartwatches.
    a few of them at first.. then more...

    similar to when we all converted
    from pagers to mobiles...
    from dumb phones to smartphones...

    home internet connections... not all households have that yet!!!!
    but more and more... all the time.
     
  10. dontpanicbobby

    dontpanicbobby Android Expert
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    Pants. Smart Pants!
     
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  11. Ekaterina

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    Hi!
    I think that smart watch is very useful for some categories of people. For driver, for senior, for active people, for children.
    For example when I drive I use this
    When I go to gym I use my polar watch
     
  12. Gmash

    Gmash Android Expert
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    At least you won't forget those at home! (I hope) :p
     
  13. mikedt

    mikedt 你好
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    "A digital watch was a piece of technology used as a timepiece. It was considered pretty primitive but the humans of Earth considered it to be a pretty neat idea."

    HHGTTG
     
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  14. Hadron

    Hadron  
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    Yes, back in the days when you had to press a button on the watch to see the time - a feature brought back by many smartwatches ;)
     
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