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Nexus One: $199 On January 5th?

Maybe a hint here:

"Google's strategy with Android likely will involve a wireless system that subsidizes the service and hardware of users in exchange for geotargeted, customized advertising. To that end, Google is planning to bid in the January 2008 auction for the license on the 700 mHz spectrum in the U.S., an ideal frequency for high speed broadband Internet access. Creating a wide coalition of partners that are independent of wireless telecommunication carriers could free mobile handset users from proprietary, closed services that have been characterized by slow service or limited features, opening the door for rapid development and integration of social networking, mobile video or mcommerce features."

"Google has applied for several patents for mobile use, including mobile contextual advertising and payment schemes. An image-based inquiry system that would allow users to scan items with an integrated camera and immediately receive identification of those items using an integrated search engine could radically change commerce and how individuals navigate commerce and the world at large. Google's Mobile Adsense program is a glimpse of this emerging technological ecosystem."

What is Android? - Definition from Whatis.com - see also: android sdk

They didn't get the 700mhz spectrum, but apparently didn't really intend to - they just wanted to make sure the spectrum block reached a minumum reserve price -

Official Google Blog: Cone of silence (finally) lifts on the spectrum auction

Want to know who topped their bid? Verizon. But, the FCC adopted two of the four openness standards as part of that auction, hence the Android on Verizon. The erstwhile bidding enemies quickly thereafter became bedfellows (and in the nick of time, maybe, to save Motorola - whose hardware efforts in the mobile phone space have been lackluster at best since the RAZR).

The plot thickens - the next play seems to be in now-unused TV spectrum ("white space"), since the switch to digital. In Spring 2008, Google's (highly-paid) Washington D.C.-based telecom counsel was saying:

"Google isn't interested in becoming a wireless service provider or building a network of its own, Whitt said. It does, however, envision the white spaces as a "unique opportunity to provide ubiquitous wireless access for all Americans" and a prime spot for use of mobile handsets running its open-source Android platform. Google hopes to start rolling out Android devices, which are being developed in conjunction with a 34-company consortium, as soon as summer or fall of this year, Whitt said. "

Google outlines proposal for 'Wi-Fi on steroids' | News Blog - CNET News

Part of that has come true (rolling out the Android handsets). What Google does best is monetize others' technology. I suspect Whitt was telling the truth. Google has no intention of going into the wireless carrier business. Yes, they may still hire mostly engineers but when you get down to it, Google is an ad company - that's where the billions come from. Everything else revolves around that.

Fatter pipe means more ad bandwidth. So, when you conveniently voice-search for "pizza", maybe soon Pizza Hut pays big bucks to float to the top and, more importantly, has all the marketing info it needs, through the appropriate licensing agreements with Google and your wireless carrier, on a pizza lover searching for a pepperoni fix in a particular geographic area - all thanks to not-evil Google. Google makes money, carrier makes money, and you get coupons mailed to you - or emailed to you, or bar-coded to you, etc.

The cablecos are crying about "interference" but what they really mean is, "don't gut our crappy, no-metrics ad revenue model or our $1M Super Bowl ads are going the way of the do-do."

Interestingly, in the TV spectrum play (which is ongoing due to the Feds delaying the digital tv switch again and again), Google is aligned with its supposed arch-nemesis, Microsoft. That might be because Microsoft, still no dummies whatever you may think of them, estimate that bandwidth is worth over $100 b-as-in-boy billion.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/microsoft-study-places-value-on-white-spaces-2009-09-23

Who could be a big loser if Google gets its wish from the FCC (aside from cablecos)? Verizon, who just bought all that C-block of 700mhz...which would become the cheap seats.

Google is a harsh mistress, basically lifting your wallet before crawling out the window and picking up the next guy.
 
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Being locked or unlocked is totally irrelevant to the price of manufacturing the phone and its physical components e.g. Locking an iPhone to AT&T does not make the cost of the LCD screen for Apple less...



The Nexus One is being manufactured by HTC and i think we can both agree that HTC is fairly well established and not just "starting out", therefore they will be able to purchase components at wholesale prices and that $200 is not an unreasonable cost for a device like the Nexus One.



I dont understand... The parts are the same but they dont buy in bulk??

If an Iphone is only supposed to cost $180 subsidized or not, why not sell them the same way as ipods? Do you really believe Iphones are so much cheaper to make then any other phone? Also lets not forget the supposed pricing to make an iphone only takes into account parts and manufacturing. That would seem to leave out shipping, marketing, tech support and R+D.
As for HTC manufactoring you totally missed the point. It doesn't matter is its a start up company or BMW. The first time any company makes a new model of anything those first unit costs are quite staggering compared to what they become later on in time. The Nexus one will be no different. Thats just simple economics and no amount of wishful thinking will make it go away.
My point about buying in bulk was in response to your statement that the components were virtually the same between the Nexus One and Iphone, yet HTC would be able to buy bulk. My point was Apple would buy in bulk as well.
I'm sure the cost to make for the Iphone has gone down since every new model is very similar to the first. But the nexus One has no such track record.
 
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My point about buying in bulk was in response to your statement that the components were virtually the same between the Nexus One and Iphone, yet HTC would be able to buy bulk. My point was Apple would buy in bulk as well.
I'm sure the cost to make for the Iphone has gone down since every new model is very similar to the first. But the nexus One has no such track record.

When Apple place a contract to manufacture iPhones, how many do you think they order?
1 million?
5 million?
10 million?

How many Nexus One's could Google safely order knowing damn well they'll sell them?
 
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Just a thought... Google is a "game-changer" by everything they do is to "change the game"... Right down to how they treat their employees...

What if Google, the same multi-billion dollar innovative company we all know and love is actually prepping for something bigger down the road (imagine that)...

I think if they came in with the cheap pricing on the phone that all are arguing over, they may be one of the few companies out their that can actually take a strategic loss on round 1 and bring it back ten-fold through what the future will hold...

Call it an investment on their behalf... They invest their own money in drawing in anyone and everyone they can and get themseleves legitimately implanted into the game... Then throughout the the year or years they make their move with even better handsets (wouldn't put it past them to start their very own service) that would then recoupe the losses and make it back with the following years to come...

Just a thought... Google is "different" always has been... That's why they are who they are...

Everyone's looking at the present and near future... These guys are most likely looking 1-3 years out (possibly further)...
 
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It has already happened. There are already sponsored Google Ads links on Google Maps for Mobile:

Google Maps Mobile With Sponsored Links | Path Interactive

Great reply and thanks for the link. So, the brave new world is here:

Internal T-mobile Doc Confirms Google Phone | Android Phone Fans

I still don't see the play here - why sell the phone directly? What is the business case for that? Google could subsidize the phone through T-mobile, if the game is just getting a larger installed base, so there is some strategy behind having their own distribution channel...

What if Google, the same multi-billion dollar innovative company we all know and love is actually prepping for something bigger down the road (imagine that)...

I think if they came in with the cheap pricing on the phone that all are arguing over, they may be one of the few companies out their that can actually take a strategic loss on round 1 and bring it back ten-fold through what the future will hold...

Call it an investment on their behalf... They invest their own money in drawing in anyone and everyone they can and get themseleves legitimately implanted into the game... Then throughout the the year or years they make their move with even better handsets (wouldn't put it past them to start their very own service) that would then recoupe the losses and make it back with the following years to come...

Just a thought... Google is "different" always has been... That's why they are who they are...

Everyone's looking at the present and near future... These guys are most likely looking 1-3 years out (possibly further)...

Well, that's surely the case - most any publicly-traded Fortune 500 company has at least a 5-year business plan. I doubt Google will eat much, if any, cost on the phone. If T-Mobile is providing the service, it may be (who knows) they are kicking in part of the subsidy for the service contracts. I expect so.

What's muddled here are all the shifting alliances Google has made (Apple, T-Mobile, Verizon, Motorola, HTC, Microsoft). I wonder if the end game here some vision of an "ad supported" phone that is "free" - giving the consumer a user experience that crams ad-sense driven advertising into every crevice of their day. The problem is, that business model has already been explored (at least partially) with mediocre results by companies like Net Zero.
 
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