Syria

[ElasticNinja]

Things are really getting bad there
The Ba'ath party are really coming down hard on the protesters Durra, no longer content to sniping off the protesters, Al-Assad has sent in the army in a full assualt

 

[Sak01]

This from last Friday but still informative. Fisk foretelling that "..the Ba'ath party will fight it's corner"
YouTube - Robert Fisk on Syrian Uprising

I heard a theory that the Saudis are stoking the flames in Syria(Iranian ally with Shia-Alawis ruling a Sunni majority) in retaliation for the Iranians doing so in Bahrain (Saudi ally ruling a Shia majority). I don't buy it but it's an interesting thought.

 

[ElasticNinja]

I'm worried about an Iranian intervention myself, good point about Bahrain
There is talk of the 5th army having many soldiers refusing orders, a general killed.. hard to get news out :L

 

[Sak01]

The soldiers refusing orders is good news but I have to say I'm pessimistic. I don't think the people can hold out against the onslaught.

On a brighter note, the Yemenis are coming closer to squeezing Saleh out. They're refusing to give him even another month in office let alone have a say in the transition. The US and the Saudis must be worried.

 

[ElasticNinja]

The soldiers refusing orders is good news but I have to say I'm pessimistic. I don't think the people can hold out against the onslaught.

same here
the protesters are getting arms in through Lebanon - but without a large minority of the army supporting them there is little hope IMO
Also worried about the overspill into Leb - a not particularly stable country as it is

On a brighter note, the Yemenis are coming closer to squeezing Saleh out. They're refusing to give him even another month in office let alone have a say in the transition. The US and the Saudis must be worried.

Oh Saleh is being a real bitch, he gets an excellent deal, and does this
He has siphoned off so much of that impoverished countries wealth

I really wish the US would pressure the Saudis more
Still better to have a horrible ally than horrible enemy

 

[Sak01]

I really wish the US would pressure the Saudis more

Pressure them about what?

 

[ElasticNinja]

Pressure them about what?

human rights etc

 

[Sak01]

human rights etc

Oh right. Human rights and their abuses have never been a concern of US foreign policy (or that of any other major world player). It's only the public that care about it.

Take the support of Mubarak, Saleh and co. all these years or go back to the toppling of Mossadegh for the Shah, or Allende's government for Pinochet, and even the pre-90s support for Saddam.

Anyhow, the reason I'd say the US and the Saudis are worried about Saleh being ousted so quickly is that unlike Egypt, where a puppet Suleiman and army top brass were available to fill the void, Yemen could fall out of the zone of influence.

On the other hand the condemnation of Syria is much sterner as it's not compliant in the first place so anything else would be considered an improvement in terms of American strategic interests.

 

[ElasticNinja]

The reason I'd be upset about Saudi Arabia is its wealthy and fairly developed - not the Third World Pakistan or Egypt.. and your right, human rights are not a major concern for the West

 

[Sak01]

...nor a concern for any of the major players, 'East' or West. Be that Russia, China and Iran or the UK, UK and France.

I say that to emphasise that all of their foreign policies have the same purpose, to gain power and wealth. And where those policies clash you get conflict usually by proxy with the small folk caught in the middle.

Right now we've got the Iranians probably desperate for Assad to suppress the revolt, the US seeing it as a potential gain but nothing-to-lose situation and the Syrian people clinging to this ray of hope for some freedom.

 

[Sak01]

I think the place is edging towards civil war. Your concerns about Lebanon overspill could fast become reality

 

[ElasticNinja]

I think the place is edging towards civil war. Your concerns about Lebanon overspill could fast become reality

Especially what with Hezbollah and its supporters being pro-Ba'ath and the Sunni and Christian population providing help to the protestors

Still I know a Lebanese Guy who's delighted (as Hezbollah would lose their main supporter) but that may be naive when you look at the possibilities

There is also Turkey, a steadfast NATO member, I don't think it will cause much problems for them though what with there heavy presence in Eastern Turkey