Will the Evo 3D SELL OUT?

[jerofld]

iPhone customers are not cross shopping android devices. (I am, but I'm an exception)

Nobody I know who has an iPhone would consider, even for a second, giving up an Apple device for something from some no-name Chinese company. They want to continue to use a phone they're familiar with and could give half a sh*t about megapixels, snapdragons, 3D, etc.

I think this can be explained by general behaviors of people. People get things that they see their friends and celebrities using. Word of mouth and good marketing on Apple's part spread that device, which really didn't have any real competition. Then people stick with what they know.

It certainly doesn't hurt Apple that the media loves them and are scared of Android. Not just tech media, but cites like CNN only mention Android when there's something bad about it. But they absolutely love the iPad. That stuff adds up.

However, I've seen that people who generally will give Android a shot will be more likely to switch. Those that will actually compare the devices, sort of thing. As an example, my sister's BF was playing with his iPhone and couldn't do something. So I let him borrow my DX for a bit. After about 15-20 minutes, he was asking me what the device was called and where to get it.

Just food for thought.

 

[EarlyMon]

3vo not first - LG Optimus 3D

 

[brownhornet]

You are also making a strong assumption, who are you to say the 3D won't be as high in demand as the Evo. Do you own a time machine of some sort? There are more options, but many are loyal to HTC. Last year many were going on about how the original galaxy S had better hardware and benchmarks than the Evo. The Evo still outsold the epic though because the HTC fan base was bigger and continued to grow with the recommendations Evo owners made to others. Just because there will be other options doesn't mean people will jump ship to them. I myself think that the phones all seem to perform pretty even from what I've seen, but they all have there own pro's and con's so it is what it is and with the advertising and rep put in the Evo branding there would be no reason for it to not have spectacular sells.

I mean the Evo DID come out before the Epic and many were already locked into contracts by then. And the fact that there are more options on more carriers doesnt necessarily mean people will jump ship TO them, but it is more likely to mean that more people WONT jump ship to Sprint to get it like they did with the Evo 4G. There was nothing else like it on any of the other carriers and no one else had 4G. Now you have Tmobile with the Sensation, getting the GS2, Xperia and the Optimus 3D. Verizon with the Thunderbolt, Charge, Bionic, SGS 2, AT&T with the Atrix, Inspire, Infuse, Thrill... and everyone has their own version of "4G" now.

And really when you think about it, from the numbers that I saw Sprint still only sold roughly 3 million Evo's between June and the end of the year. It's not terrible obviously but its not really great either from a sales standpoint. But this year with everyone else having their own power phones I dont see many people switching just for the "3D" aspect. And then you factor in all of the places out in the midwest and west where Sprint lost coverage from the Sprint-Alltel roaming agreement collapse... quite a few factors. The phone will sell, but its safe to say that the majority of the people that bought the Evo last year wont have 1 year upgrades.

As far as the people coming from the Iphone to the 3D in droves, not likely. Those folk are some of the most dedicated to a brand people ive ever seen. And on that note the one good thing Sprint does have in its favor for the 3D to do some decent sales is the fact that the iphone HASNT officially been announced for Sprint. Yea I know, we're all android and would never switch to an iphone blah blah blah, but I have no question in my mind whatsoever that if Sprint were to announce a July launch of the iphone tomorrow every phone coming out before it would take a hit in sales. Its just like with the iphone on Verizon.. everyone called it a flop beacuse it didnt do mega numbers.. but they sold 2 million of em in a month?!?!? A phone that had been out almost a year already. When the 5th one drops on both AT&T and VZW at the same time the sales are going to be insane.

 

[Djblue11]

I mean the Evo DID come out before the Epic and many were already locked into contracts by then. And the fact that there are more options on more carriers doesnt necessarily mean people will jump ship TO them, but it is more likely to mean that more people WONT jump ship to Sprint to get it like they did with the Evo 4G. There was nothing else like it on any of the other carriers and no one else had 4G. Now you have Tmobile with the Sensation, getting the GS2, Xperia and the Optimus 3D. Verizon with the Thunderbolt, Charge, Bionic, SGS 2, AT&T with the Atrix, Inspire, Infuse, Thrill... and everyone has their own version of "4G" now.

And really when you think about it, from the numbers that I saw Sprint still only sold roughly 3 million Evo's between June and the end of the year. It's not terrible obviously but its not really great either from a sales standpoint. But this year with everyone else having their own power phones I dont see many people switching just for the "3D" aspect. And then you factor in all of the places out in the midwest and west where Sprint lost coverage from the Sprint-Alltel roaming agreement collapse... quite a few factors. The phone will sell, but its safe to say that the majority of the people that bought the Evo last year wont have 1 year upgrades.

As far as the people coming from the Iphone to the 3D in droves, not likely. Those folk are some of the most dedicated to a brand people ive ever seen. And on that note the one good thing Sprint does have in its favor for the 3D to do some decent sales is the fact that the iphone HASNT officially been announced for Sprint. Yea I know, we're all android and would never switch to an iphone blah blah blah, but I have no question in my mind whatsoever that if Sprint were to announce a July launch of the iphone tomorrow every phone coming out before it would take a hit in sales. Its just like with the iphone on Verizon.. everyone called it a flop beacuse it didnt do mega numbers.. but they sold 2 million of em in a month?!?!? A phone that had been out almost a year already. When the 5th one drops on both AT&T and VZW at the same time the sales are going to be insane.

I agree with most of it. Imo I see many who aren't very tech savy seeing the evo 3d and basing their purchase off of that feature. Also I am just starting to realize it, but contracts really don't matter for a lot of people. I know that a lot of people bought the hero with their upgrade and bought the Evo off contract and the time frame between the releases wasn't even 1 year. There will also be all the new platform switchers and carrier switchers. Honestly though I think the most important thing will be the advertising, if sprint went all out by doing commercials, ads , billboards, etc. like Verizon did with the og droid then there's no way this thing could have horrible sales. If they use the same advertising approach as they did with the og evo then I could see it selling just as much as the original, depending on supply of course

 

[brownhornet]

I agree with most of it. Imo I see many who aren't very tech savy seeing the evo 3d and basing their purchase off of that feature. Also I am just starting to realize it, but contracts really don't matter for a lot of people. I know that a lot of people bought the hero with their upgrade and bought the Evo off contract and the time frame between the releases wasn't even 1 year. There will also be all the new platform switchers and carrier switchers. Honestly though I think the most important thing will be the advertising, if sprint went all out by doing commercials, ads , billboards, etc. like Verizon did with the og droid then there's no way this thing could have horrible sales. If they use the same advertising approach as they did with the og evo then I could see it selling just as much as the original, depending on supply of course

I paid cash for my Evo too.. still have my upgrade but im holding out for the GS2.

 

[Halfbaked]

That is a huge problem. I am seeing no advertising regarding the EVO 3D.

Last year it was "Get the first 4G phone" on the market. This year should be "Get the first 3D phone" (is it the 1st?) since that is the only thing they can really market. The general public doesn't care about the screen, amount of RAM/ROM, or that it now has a dual core processor. The people that care about that stuff already know about the EVO 3D.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Sprint doesn't do a lot of pre advertising for flagship phones because dates for launching a phone can change. No sense in putting out ads when you don't have a firm launch date. Look at how people in this forum was acting if they saw one ad but no release date. People were getting pissed off. Advertising once the phone launches solves a lot of problems that could occur for Sprint.

 

[CrazyTechnoBoy]

If you think about it, A LOT of people know about the E3D. I haven't even seen it much on the web, just on Sprint's websites and a few of other sites. Sprint doesn't really advertise the E3D. On the few sites where I see Sprint advertise, the ads only show the Evo. Yet, without much ads, there are thousands, maybe even hundreds of thousands, of people who know about the E3D.

 

[kenn]

I don't know that it will sell out... I just came from a large corporate store in my area (Austin, TX). I placed my $50 on the table for a gift card and a guaranteed spot on the list. I was number 7. He said they would get at least 40 phones, maybe more.

He said the $50 gift card requirement has really kept people from being put on the list as it is now only the ones who truly want a phone... Sprint did this to keep people from putting their name on a list in multiple stores then causing all sorts of no-shows on launch day.

I'm guessing there will be a bunch of walk-in business the days after the launch. In Austin, at least for now, it doesn't appear there is going to be a mad rush for the Evo 3D.

Hopefully the phone sells extremely well overall, though, as it will bring a healthy mod community.

 

[RAdroider]

its going to sell well, but not as well as the Evo. 4g was a bigger deal than 3d, obviously this phone is better than the year old Evo....doesnt mean it will sell better.


Went to Sprint yesterday and the employee said that this phone didnt nearly have the hype of the last one going in to the final week or so.

 

[Deleted User]

I think a big thing with Sprint Exclusive phones is that sprint doesn't advertise/hype nearly as well as Verizon does.

Just look at the Droid X hype commercials. those grab your attention and make you remember it.

 

[jerofld]

I paid cash for my Evo too.. still have my upgrade but im holding out for the GS2.

Wouldn't it have been cheaper to pay the ETF and buy a new contract phone? ETF is "up to $200" on the website. So $200 ETF + $200 contract = $400, ignoring activation fees that would be applicable for either method. Depending on state, you would pay less on tax for this method, too, because you would only be taxed on $200 rather than full retail price of $550 (depending on actual retail price). ETF also depreciates as your contract comes closer to completion.

According to this page, if you bought an Evo 4G in June of '10, your ETF would be $120. Add in $200 for a new contract price and you're looking at $320 to upgrade from an Evo 4G to an Evo 3D with a 2 year agreement. Much better than the $550 retail price. Using the Evo 4G to 3D as an example. But it would probably have worked just the same going from your previous phone to the Evo 4G.

 

[ebolamonkey3]

Wouldn't it have been cheaper to pay the ETF and buy a new contract phone? ETF is "up to $200" on the website. So $200 ETF + $200 contract = $400, ignoring activation fees that would be applicable for either method. Depending on state, you would pay less on tax for this method, too, because you would only be taxed on $200 rather than full retail price of $550 (depending on actual retail price). ETF also depreciates as your contract comes closer to completion.

According to this page, if you bought an Evo 4G in June of '10, your ETF would be $120. Add in $200 for a new contract price and you're looking at $320 to upgrade from an Evo 4G to an Evo 3D with a 2 year agreement. Much better than the $550 retail price. Using the Evo 4G to 3D as an example. But it would probably have worked just the same going from your previous phone to the Evo 4G.

That only works if he's okay w/ resigning his current contract for another 2 years though.

Plus, now he has an upgrade saved up for the GSII or a Nexus 3 if it comes out in December.

 

[kenn]

What other dual core processor phones have hit the stores or are imminent?

 

[brownhornet]

That only works if he's okay w/ resigning his current contract for another 2 years though.

Plus, now he has an upgrade saved up for the GSII or a Nexus 3 if it comes out in December.

Exactly.. that dude is talking crazy lol.

 

[ebolamonkey3]

What other dual core processor phones have hit the stores or are imminent?

On Verizon? Just the Evo 3D on June 24th and the Samsung Galaxy SII that's rumored for late July. Motorola Photon also sometimes later this year.

This is better, click on the carriers to see the phones available now and upcoming:
Phone Carriers - Phone Arena

 

[yourfriendmat]

Wouldn't it have been cheaper to pay the ETF and buy a new contract phone? ETF is "up to $200" on the website. So $200 ETF + $200 contract = $400, ignoring activation fees that would be applicable for either method. Depending on state, you would pay less on tax for this method, too, because you would only be taxed on $200 rather than full retail price of $550 (depending on actual retail price). ETF also depreciates as your contract comes closer to completion.

According to this page, if you bought an Evo 4G in June of '10, your ETF would be $120. Add in $200 for a new contract price and you're looking at $320 to upgrade from an Evo 4G to an Evo 3D with a 2 year agreement. Much better than the $550 retail price. Using the Evo 4G to 3D as an example. But it would probably have worked just the same going from your previous phone to the Evo 4G.

Cell companies have protections against this. They make it so that you don't qualify as a "new customer" for anywhere between 90 days and 6 months after cancelling, depending on the carrier.

 

[kenn]

On Verizon? Just the Evo 3D on June 24th and the Samsung Galaxy SII that's rumored for late July. Motorola Photon also sometimes later this year.

This is better, click on the carriers to see the phones available now and upcoming:
Phone Carriers - Phone Arena

Ebola Monkey - Have you read a book titled, "The Hot Zone"? Look it up....

I'm not aware of any dual core processors that are imminent release.

The ones upcoming all seem to be 1.0Ghz dual core while the 3D is a 1.2. I don't know that it's a big dial or not, but if Sprint were to advertise "first dual core Android phone, running latest Android version, with built-in 3D photos, videos, and games, I think they would get quite a bit of attention. That would grab the attention of the geek, the videophile, the gaming nerd, and the 3D fad freaks...

Perhaps there is a competitor out there for the 3D that will be close on its heels but I believe that there are enough firsts and enough high tech to really build an advertising plan around. Unfortunately, it's a bit late as the phone releases in 10 days. Advertising would need to start, well, now.

 

[EarlyMon]

Ebola Monkey - Have you read a book titled, "The Hot Zone"? Look it up....

I'm not aware of any dual core processors that are imminent release.

The ones upcoming all seem to be 1.0Ghz dual core while the 3D is a 1.2. I don't know that it's a big dial or not, but if Sprint were to advertise "first dual core Android phone, running latest Android version, with built-in 3D photos, videos, and games, I think they would get quite a bit of attention. That would grab the attention of the geek, the videophile, the gaming nerd, and the 3D fad freaks...

Perhaps there is a competitor out there for the 3D that will be close on its heels but I believe that there are enough firsts and enough high tech to really build an advertising plan around. Unfortunately, it's a bit late as the phone releases in 10 days. Advertising would need to start, well, now.

Maybe I'm misreading how you wrote that -

Dual cores are already out - Motorola Atrix for example, Sensation and Galaxy S II in Europe, Sensation on T-Mobile launches here tomorrow.

Meanwhile, LG Optimus 3D is dual core and out there.

So - if you meant, most combined newer features in one design then yes - if you meant first 3D or dual core, not so much.

 

[Blackbeauty212]

I can't help but wonder if the announcement of the Photon, stole some of the 3D's thunder.

Sprint marketing of devices has gotten better, love the Cats Nexus S commercial.

 

[viber]

I can't help but wonder if the announcement of the Photon, stole some of the 3D's thunder.

The Evo name has weight, like the Droid on Verizon.

The Photon name has zero market presence.

Steal the Evo's thunder? I doubt it...

 

[kenn]

Maybe I'm misreading how you wrote that -

Dual cores are already out - Motorola Atrix for example, Sensation and Galaxy S II in Europe, Sensation on T-Mobile launches here tomorrow.

Meanwhile, LG Optimus 3D is dual core and out there.

So - if you meant, most combined newer features in one design then yes - if you meant first 3D or dual core, not so much.

The only part I left out was that I was specifically referring to the US market. That said, I wasn't aware the Atrix was dual core. I wasn't sure about the Sensation's launch date... Thanks for the information.

 

[Androidalltheway]

Anyone have any idea how the Evo 3D is selling? My guess is not as well as the evo 4g last year because I have seen it available everywhere.

 

[DonB]

That does not mean it is not selling as well, maybe they learned from that and manufactured more this time from the start. I would say IMO selling just as well

Anyone have any idea how the Evo 3D is selling? My guess is not as well as the evo 4g last year because I have seen it available everywhere.

 

[EarlyMon]

Sprint is announcing earnings this month, perhaps the 27th as memory serves.

I remember last year when they overstated Evo sales at launch and had to take heat for it.

 

[brownhornet]

That does not mean it is not selling as well, maybe they learned from that and manufactured more this time from the start. I would say IMO selling just as well

Im sure its selling well but as well as the 4G not a chance.